Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market will remain RBA’s headache We wouldn’t read too much into October’s largest fall in employment in three years as the monthly data are volatile. But we still expect the unemployment rate to rise in the coming months as the... 15th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (second estimate), Employment (Q3) While the second estimate of Q3 GDP for the euro-zone was unchanged, and Germany narrowly avoided a technical recession, we think that the cyclical downturn in the region still has further to run. Our... 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Oct.) The sharp fall in employment will be causing concern for the RBA and we think the unemployment rate has further to rise in the coming months. 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Cracks beginning to appear in the labour market The recent softening of hiring intentions implies that average monthly employment gains will slow further, to below the sustainable rate. While base effects will keep annual hourly wage growth above 4... 13th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q3) The slowdown in wage growth in the third quarter doesn’t come as a complete surprise to the RBA and we still expect the Bank to wait until February before cutting rates again. 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) After GDP growth disappointed expectations yesterday, the smaller than expected fall in employment in the three months to September was something of a relief. At the margin, the figures reduce the... 12th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Labour Force Survey (Oct.) The details of October’s Labour Force Survey were worse than the modest fall in employment first suggested. Full-time and private sector positions fell, while the rise in public sector and part-time... 8th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Household Spending & Labour Cash Earnings (Sep.) The surge in household spending in September adds to the evidence of a last-minute spending spree ahead of October’s sales tax hike. While that raises the chances of a deep slump in the following... 8th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q3) The rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% in Q3 only reverses the decline in Q2 so we doubt the RBNZ will be too worried at this stage. 5th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The solid 128,000 gain in non-farm payrolls was more impressive than it looked given it was depressed by the GM strike and a census-related drop in Federal employment. Together with upward revisions... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) The jump in the unemployment rate in September has further to run as new job offers are drying up. That increases the chances that the Bank of Japan will eventually have to cut interest rates. 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Political clouds gather Political risk grabbed the headlines this month, with protestors taking to the streets across the Andes and Argentina electing a new Peronist president. Demonstrations in Ecuador and Chile will weigh... 31st October 2019 · 13 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Policy moves make headlines in key economies Policymakers in South Africa and Angola admitted the severity of their countries’ economic problems this month, while their Nigerian peers moved further down the road to autarky. South Africa’s... 31st October 2019 · 14 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3), Unemp. (Sept.) & HICP (Oct.) The slightly better-than-expected euro-zone Q3 GDP figure does not alter the fact that the region is expanding at only a very modest pace. What’s more, forward-looking indicators, along with the... 31st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack IMF too optimistic on Australia and New Zealand In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF predicted Australia’s economy to expand by 1.7% in 2019 and by 2.3% in 2020. While the 2019 forecast is consistent with our own expectations, their... 31st October 2019 · 10 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Sri Lanka goes to the polls Campaigning ahead of Sri Lanka’s presidential election, to be held on 16th November, is well underway. President Maithripala Sirisena has already confirmed he will not stand again and will step down... 30th October 2019 · 15 mins read
