How did we get employment so badly wrong?

The unexpected 2.5 million rebound in nonfarm payroll employment in May, against a consensus expectation of a 7.5 million decline, has generated a lot of speculation that the figures were either manipulated for political reasons or juiced by firms temporarily rehiring workers to ensure that their Paycheck Protection Program loans convert into grants. With hindsight, however, the weekly continuing claims figures were probably providing an overly bearish gauge of labour market conditions – with the boost to unemployment payments prompting more people than normal to claim.