Japan Data Response Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Jan.) The coronavirus is likely to knock off course the slight recovery observed in the manufacturing and retail sectors last month. As such, we expect the unemployment rate to rise further over the coming... 28th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls powering ahead for now We expect February’s employment report to ease some of the recent fears about the health of the economy, with non-farm payrolls rising by 230,000 and the unemployment rate dropping back to a 50-year... 27th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Threat from the coronavirus continues to grow We estimate GDP growth in Australia continued to muddle along in Q4, edging up from 0.4% q/q in Q3 to 0.5% q/q. In New Zealand, we think a stronger contribution from net trade was offset by a decline... 26th February 2020 · 10 mins read
US Economics Update How low could the unemployment rate go? If the current robust trend in employment growth continues, the unemployment rate could eventually fall to its lowest level since the early 1950s. But even if it does, there are several reasons to... 25th February 2020 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack The coronavirus impact on Indian industry Temporary disruption from the outbreak of the coronavirus should have limited macroeconomic impact on Indian industry. After all, India has a negligible supply-chain exposure to China, where factory... 24th February 2020 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Unemployment will rise and wage growth will fall Data released this week showed that there is still considerable spare capacity in the labour market. The minutes of the RBA’s February meeting showed that the Bank has some concerns about cutting... 21st February 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Jan.) The jump in the unemployment rate in January probably isn’t enough by itself to convince the RBA to cut rates. But we think the weakness in the underlying economy will keep pushing the unemployment... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Virus disruption starting to weigh on employment The vast majority of firms in China have enough funds to keep paying their creditors and employees for at least a couple of months amid the disruptions caused by the coronavirus outbreak. But a... 19th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Wage Price Index (Q4) Wage growth remained subdued in the fourth quarter and we expect it to weaken further over the coming quarters. That should eventually convince the RBA to cut interest rates to 0.25%. 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Dec.) The larger-than-expected rise in employment in December suggests that the labour market joined the rest of the economy in turning a corner at the end of last year. However, pay growth is softening... 18th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Is the plunge in job openings a concern? The sharp fall in job openings over the past year appears to be a lagged response to the earlier slowdown in hiring intentions rather than a sign that labour market conditions are about to deteriorate... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Jan.) The marked improvement in the Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) in January suggests household spending bounced back strongly last month with no sign of a drag on sentiment from the coronavirus. Both... 10th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Labour Force Survey (Jan.) The further rise in employment, the decline in the unemployment rate, and the sharp rebound in wage growth in January all reinforce our view that the Bank of Canada is unlikely to cut interest rates... 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 225,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in January suggests that employment benefitted from the unseasonably mild weather (it was the fifth warmest January on record), with the construction sector... 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Impact of coronavirus on industry, workstyle reforms While the coronavirus is already hurting tourism, China’s intensified efforts to contain the virus have presented another potential obstacle for the Japanese economy. Meanwhile, more companies... 7th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Dec.) With the unemployment rate set to rise, we expect the softness of wage growth in December to continue into 2020. We are forecasting a disappointing 0.2% increase in labour cash earnings this year. 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
