Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The strong labour market and the cautious RBA The financial markets are probably right to assume that the release of June’s bumper labour market figures has increased the chances that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates a bit... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Corporate defaults surge Corporate bond defaults in China have jumped recently, adding to worries about the economic outlook. July is on track to more than double the previous monthly record for the scale of onshore bonds... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Outlook positive, but risks are rising Most European economies have experienced a slowdown since last year, but growth is still strong by historic standards and prospects are fairly bright. Admittedly, trade protection poses a serious... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jun.) The labour market is improving quicker than the RBA expected, but it is probably the case that the unemployment rate would have to fall below 5.0%, other measures of spare capacity would have to... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Renewed momentum gives MPC the green light With sustained rises in real wages now in prospect, real consumer spending growth should accelerate again. Of course, Brexit-related uncertainties and their economic effects could intensify over the... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong second quarter unlikely to be repeated Our calculations suggest that second-quarter GDP growth was as strong as 4.5% annualised, driven by a rebound in consumption growth and a big export-fuelled contribution from net external trade. It... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (May) The final set of labour market figures before the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) August meeting will not deter the Committee from pressing ahead and raising interest rates. 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Economy returned to growth in Q2 The contraction in output in the first quarter was just a blip. The available activity data suggest that the economy returned to growth in the second quarter. But growth won’t be as strong this year... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economic Outlook Subdued inflation ties BoJ’s hands We expect GDP growth to be broadly in line with trend both this year and next. The labour market will remain very tight and wage growth may strengthen further. But sluggish demand after next year’s... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Trade strains build The main impact for EMs so far from rising global trade tensions and risk aversion has been on financial markets rather than on economic growth. But the resulting tightening of financial conditions –... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys point to rising cost pressures The NFIB survey and JOLTS figures released today show that labour market conditions are still tightening. 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Domestic headwinds building Sentiment about China’s economic prospects has worsened recently as trade tensions have escalated. The tariffs announced so far won’t have a big impact though. Instead, we expect economic growth to... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Scope for the participation rate to rise further While the aging of the population will continue to exert a sizeable downward influence on the participation rate in the coming years, this will probably be more than offset by further rises in the... 9th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Mixed employment survey makes Bank’s job harder The Bank of Canada’s policy announcement will take the spotlight next week. Despite June’s Labour Force Survey being something of a mixed bag, the subsequent rise in the Canadian dollar suggests that... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) & International Trade (May) Although the unemployment rate rose and wage growth slowed in June, the construction-driven 32,000 increase in employment will soothe concerns about the housing market. Even with exports falling in... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 213,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June, which followed an even stronger 244,000 rise in May, provides further evidence that uncertainty over trade policy isn’t yet having a major impact on the... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
