Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Aug.) The unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in August and we think a slowing in employment growth should drive the unemployment rate even higher, to 5.4% by the end of the year. 19th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Manufacturing sentiment worst since 2011 Business surveys suggest that conditions in manufacturing worsened again in August. The Cabinet Office’s survey-based index of manufacturing conditions fell to its lowest level since 2011, when the... 17th September 2019 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rising unemployment heaps pressure on the Riksbank The sharp rise in Swedish unemployment in August serves as further evidence that the Riksbank is unlikely to be able to tighten policy later this year, as it forecasts. 17th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2) The increase in nominal hourly labour cost growth to 2.7% in Q2 masks significant differences between countries and is partly due to a reduction in hours worked, rather than higher wages. We continue... 13th September 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jul.) July’s figures showed that the labour market has remained remarkably resilient despite the underlying weakness of economic growth, but some small cracks are starting to appear. 10th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) The 130,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in August was flattered by the hiring of 25,000 temporary workers to help prepare for next year’s census. More generally, there has been a clear... 6th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Labour Force Survey (Aug.) August’s broad-based 81,000 jump in employment shows that the economy continues to shrug off global headwinds. But with the employment surveys weakening in recent months, we are doubtful that this... 6th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.) The drop in labour cash earnings in July was driven by volatile bonus payments whereas regular earnings accelerated. While we expect the unemployment rate to rise again before long, wage growth should... 6th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australian dollar has further to fall At the start of the year, we were a lone voice forecasting that the Australian dollar would decline to US$0.65 by year-end. The Australian dollar has come under increasing pressure this month on a... 2nd September 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) With headline and core inflation unchanged in August, at 1.0% and 0.9% respectively, and unemployment also unchanged at 7.5% in July, the scene is set for the ECB to loosen policy further. 30th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Surveys suggest payrolls will disappoint We estimate that employment growth slowed further in August, with non-farm payrolls rising by a below-consensus 110,000. 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Political risk back on the agenda Despite the poor global outlook, GDP growth across Emerging Asia actually picked up slightly in the second quarter, and our forecast is for a further gradual recovery over the remainder of the year... 26th August 2019 · 16 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Subsidies for Lost Generation, rugby spending boost The planned subsidies to encourage firms to hire more regular workers may lift wage growth a bit. Meanwhile, the upcoming Rugby World Cup could provide a welcome boost to demand as it will happen... 23rd August 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Outlook for labour market remains challenging The recent weakness in economic activity should start to weigh on jobs growth before long, pushing up the unemployment rate further and resulting in weaker wage growth. While a softer labour market... 16th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jul.) The strong rise in employment in July failed to make any inroads into the pool of unemployed workers. Employment growth is set to falter, pushing up the unemployment rate further before long. 15th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q2) Wage growth treaded water in the second quarter and the recent loosening of the labour market suggests it will fall to 2% before long. 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
