UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Dec.) Job creation failed to meet economist’s expectations in December. Combined with a rise in the participation rate, that contributed to the first increase in the unemployment rate since August 2016. Yet... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) While the manufacturing PMI weakened in February it remains near the highest it has been since 2014’s sales tax hike and consistent with strong gains in industrial output. Meanwhile, the survey... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Is Japan overheating? Japan’s economy recorded an eighth consecutive quarter of growth in Q4, the longest uninterrupted run of expansion since the late 1980s. Unemployment is very low, inflation has started to pick up... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) The hike in Ontario’s minimum wage to $14.00 an hour on January 1st, from $11.60, had a devastating impact, with 59,300 part-time jobs lost in the first month alone, equivalent to 4.3% of part-time... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An oasis of record low interest rates If global equity markets are fearing higher interest rates, as this week’s fall suggest, then Australia and New Zealand offer something of an oasis as both the RBA and RBNZ dropped some heavy hints... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Jan.) The slump in the Economy Watchers Survey in January probably reflects cold winter weather and we wouldn’t read too much into it. 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How much longer will the consumer squeeze last? 2017 was a fairly dismal year for consumers. With prices rising more quickly than wages, consumer spending growth has halved since 2016. But is the worst of the squeeze now behind us, or is there... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Dec.) The slowdown in wage growth in December was driven by bonus payments and overtime pay whereas regular pay rebounded. The big picture is that wage growth remains sluggish. 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Pick-up in wage growth a weather-related distortion The reported acceleration in wage growth last month, which triggered the recent market sell-off, was nothing more than a weather-related distortion. The unseasonably cold January explains both the... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 200,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January, which was above the consensus estimate but in line with our own forecast, leaves the Fed firmly on track to raise rates in March. And with signs that... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is French inflation about to take off? The strength of France’s economic recovery and improving conditions in the labour market suggest that core inflation will soon start to rise from its current depressed levels. But recent reforms will... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) & Unemployment (Dec.) January’s fall in euro-zone inflation largely reflected energy effects, so won’t be a major concern to the ECB. But December’s labour market data emphasise that there is still slack in the labour... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence January’s GfK/NOP confidence survey suggested that consumers started the year in fairly good spirits. And with real earnings likely to recover in the second half of this year, there is scope for... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jan.) Household sentiment remained strong at the start of 2018 and suggests that the expansion in consumer spending has further to run. 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German pay demands won’t see inflation surge Recent pay demands by German trade unions may look like a sign that the economy’s strength is causing a surge in inflationary pressure. But the demands are very unlikely to be met in full. We expect a... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Consumer Spending (Dec.) While the jobless rate edged up in December, the continued rise in job vacancies suggest it will fall to fresh lows before long. Meanwhile, consumer spending should have rebounded last quarter even... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
