UK Data Response Labour Market (Apr.) The labour market remained relatively robust in April, despite the drop in activity in the rest of the economy. While we do expect employment growth to slow over the rest of this year as the available... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The soft 75,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May wasn’t quite as bad as the dismal ADP employment reading earlier this week, but it is another sign that economic growth is slowing. On balance, we... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Apr.) Although wage growth recovered in April, sampling distortions mean that it remains much weaker than what is implied by the tightness of labour market. But even once those distortions abate, a... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) The drop in the euro-zone’s headline inflation rate in May was largely due to lower energy inflation and a reversal of Easter timing effects. But with wage growth likely to have peaked, we expect core... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB heading to Vilnius, inflation to drop back This week saw a fresh escalation of the tensions between Italy and the European Commission, and the publication of some fairly downbeat survey data. Combined with the very low inflation data we expect... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Activity, Labour Market (Apr.) & Tokyo CPI (May) The rebound in industrial output in April coupled with upbeat forecasts for May suggests that the manufacturing sector will return to growth in Q2. However, we still expect the labour market to... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Say hello to our new payroll model Our new model points to a 190,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May, although we anticipate a more pronounced slowdown in employment growth over the next few months. The unemployment rate is expected... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Who is winning the trade war? With the trade war between the US and China continuing to escalate, a clear winner is starting to emerge: Vietnam. Since around the middle of last year, Vietnam’s exports to the US have shot up by... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rates may fall to 0.75% The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has telegraphed that it will cut interest rates to 1.25% in June and we think it will follow up with another 25bp cut in August. But we suspect that further easing... 28th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss franc set to keep on rising The Swiss franc has strengthened in recent weeks, and we think that this trend will continue over the rest of the year. By contrast, despite the Swedish central bank’s concerns about the krona’s... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Weakness of core inflation to prove persistent Fed officials have dismissed the recent weakness of core inflation, which has fallen to only 1.6% on the PCE measure, as being driven by transitory factors. Methodology changes resulted in a sharp... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Modi on the cusp of victory Exit polls signal that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP and its coalition partners in the National Democratic Alliance have won India’s election. Admittedly, exit polls have been wrong in the past, not least... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Labour market’s strong performance will soon end Trade uncertainty and increased competition in the food delivery service sector help to explain the unusual strength of employment growth. Surveys now suggest that jobs growth will slow and, even with... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Who is getting a pay rise of over 3%? The labour market is running hot, but some people doubt that wages are rising by more than 3% a year. That is probably because higher pay growth is being driven by the small share of workers switching... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Apr.) The rise in unemployment in April was largely due to a jump in the labour force participation rate so the RBA may not feel pressured to ease policy immediately. But as unemployment remains high over... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP, Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) Given that the improvement in Q1 was at least partly due to temporary factors, and that business surveys have remained uniformly downbeat, we suspect that the German economy will lose momentum again... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
