UK Housing Market Update Arrears to rise when policy support is withdrawn Mortgage arrears have remained very low, casting doubt on our view that we will see a substantial rise in forced selling later this year. But new evidence from the Resolution Foundation shows that... 23rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Oil sector strength mitigating weakness elsewhere The pandemic has thrown up many surprises for the Canadian economy, the latest of which is the speed at which oil production has rebounded. Even though global fuel demand remains weak amid ongoing... 23rd February 2021 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update Mixed picture for pay pressures in major economies With vaccines improving the economic outlook and labour market data surprising to the upside, we have revised down our unemployment forecasts for almost all major economies. But wider measures of... 23rd February 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Dec./Jan.) The rise in the unemployment rate in December is another step up on the climb towards the 6.5% peak we expect by the end of the year. But if the government follows the roadmap that it laid out on... 23rd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack GDP will soon be back at pre-virus path The strong rise in output in Q4 2020 to just 1.2% below Q4 2019 levels bolsters our view that Japan’s economy will be back to the level it reached before the tax hike and close to its pre-virus path... 22nd February 2021 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Pandemic-driven staff shortages could lift wage growth Even though the unemployment rate is still as high as it was during the mining bust, job vacancies and the share of firms reporting staff shortages have surged. We suspect that this has been driven by... 22nd February 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economy increasingly shrugging off lockdowns Short localised lockdowns are becoming increasingly common in New Zealand and Australia as governments seek to contain virus outbreaks. But the impact on consumption is typically short-lived and... 19th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Feb. 2021) The rebound in the composite PMI in February supports our view that the economy is coping with the second state of emergency better than most had anticipated. 19th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jan. 2021) While employment growth slowed in January, it should remain strong enough to lower the unemployment rate to 5.5% by the end of this year. 18th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Governments likely to avoid a labour market cliff edge We think the risk of surge in unemployment and slump in household incomes later this year is quite low. Euro-zone governments are choosing to extend their job support schemes and will probably scale... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q4) The preliminary estimate of euro-zone Q4 GDP was revised up slightly in today’s release, and confirmed that the hit to the economy from the autumn lockdowns was much smaller than in Q2 last year... 16th February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Focus $15 minimum wage would add to inflation pressures We suspect that President Joe Biden’s plan to more than double the minimum wage within four years would have only a minimal impact on GDP. While there would almost certainly be some job losses as a... 10th February 2021 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi unemployment rate to fall only gradually Saudi Arabia’s unemployment rate has risen sharply in the past year and, while we expect it to fall back, the weak recovery means that it might take many years before it gets close to its pre-pandemic... 10th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Easing of restrictions to gradually lift employment The easing of the coronavirus restrictions will support a rebound in employment, but the recovery is likely to be slow going for the next few months due to limited progress with vaccinations. 10th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Spain set for short-term gains, but long-term pain Spain’s economy had been set for a bright 2021 as the vaccine offered hope of a bumper summer tourism season. But the poor start to the rollout means that is now looking less likely. Moreover, the... 10th February 2021 · 21 mins read
US Economics Update Surveys paint more optimistic picture of labour market The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest that labour market conditions remain stronger than the headline data imply and add to the evidence that inflation will rebound this year. 9th February 2021 · 2 mins read
