Latin America Economics Weekly Rising unemployment, fiscal damage, USMCA A dig into the recent labour market data shows that the hit has been even worse than the recent surge in headline unemployment rates suggests. With activity only recovering gradually, there will... 3rd July 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Labour market casts a dark shadow over the recovery While there are signs that the economy is recovering more quickly than expected, a large rise in unemployment is on the horizon. This, combined with Brexit uncertainty and the possibility of further... 3rd July 2020 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 4.8 million increase in non-farm payrolls in June provides further confirmation that the initial economic rebound has been far faster than we and most others anticipated. But that still leaves... 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Unemployment set to rise further, but not as far as feared Given the success of the government’s job furlough scheme and the signs of a strong initial rebound in economic activity we now think that the unemployment rate will peak later, in June 2021 rather... 2nd July 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (May) The trivial rise in unemployment in the euro-zone reflects the success of short-time working schemes in protecting jobs but also an increase in “inactivity” as people have been unable to look for work... 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q2) While business conditions collapsed in the Q2 Tankan, with economic activity now recovering that probably marks the trough. And surprisingly resilient investment forecasts for the upcoming fiscal year... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economies coming roaring back Restrictions on activity have lifted in both countries. While some states in Australia still limit the size of groups and capacity at restaurants, New Zealand has now lifted all domestic restrictions... 30th June 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (May) The sharp drop in the number of furloughed workers in May supports our view that household incomes will rebound in the second half of the year. And while industrial production plunged again in May, it... 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly NZ activity back to normal, but labour market is not As New Zealand has almost entirely eliminated the virus, domestic restrictions have been eased which has allowed activity and consumption to return to normal levels. We have therefore raised our GDP... 26th June 2020 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview The long road back We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by five million in June, as more furloughed employees returned to work. That would be another encouraging sign of the strength of the initial... 25th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will Germany’s 2009 jobs miracle be repeated? Euro-zone countries seeking to avoid a surge in unemployment have sought to replicate Germany’s short-time working scheme that served it well during the global financial crisis. Germany’s experience... 24th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Sugar-high in consumption may not last Consumer spending is bouncing back more strongly than we had anticipated. However, that partly reflects pent-up demand and the strong support from government initiatives. Employment income has slumped... 22nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy bouncing back strongly Data released this week have shown the Australian economy is rebounding faster than we had expected. While labour market data for May showed a further decline in employment, a fall in the... 19th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (May) Employment fell further in May but with the economy opening up again it should start to rebound in June. As such, the unemployment rate probably won’t rise any further. 18th June 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update ILO be damned? The latest data highlighted a diverging trend between the two main measures of unemployment. Neither measure is perfect, but at least the claimant count is timelier than the ILO measure. Until the ILO... 17th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Huge CERB payouts point to stronger recovery The Canada Emergency Response Benefit has paid out far more than we expected and household income was probably broadly unchanged in the second quarter. Together with the confirmation today that the... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
