Global Economics Update US pay pressures are the exception, not the norm While pay growth has risen across the developed economies, in several cases this reflects reduced hours or the fact that a disproportionate number of low paid workers have lost their jobs. There are... 20th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Australia Labour Market (Apr.) While the economy shed some jobs after the JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme came to an end, the surge in vacancies suggests employment will keep rising over the coming months. 20th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily US corporate bonds versus equities The relative valuation of stock and corporate bond markets continues to make us doubt that equities in general are in a bubble. It remains very different to the situation before collapses in the US... 19th May 2021 · 6 mins read
RBNZ Watch Housing mandate won’t change the Bank’s outlook While the Bank will acknowledge the new house price requirements in its remit it is unlikely to respond to them with immediate policy changes. On that basis we expect the RBNZ to keep policy settings... 19th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Nationwide state of emergency touch and go Off the back of the weak Q1 GDP data, we now expect output to only rise 2% across 2021. The economy is unlikely to recover much in Q2 as cases are close to record highs and calls for a nationwide... 19th May 2021 · 10 mins read
India Economics Update Higher female participation to help India outperform There is typically more scope for female participation rates to rise and boost labour supply in EMs. This is particularly so in India and is one reason why we expect its economy to outperform in the... 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1) The strength in wage growth in Q1 was partly due to one-off factors which will fade in the year ahead, but we still think the tightening in the labour market will see wage growth rise in earnest... 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) The euro-zone economy contracted again in Q1 but continued progress on reducing Covid infections and administering vaccines suggests that the region’s economic recovery is underway. 18th May 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Mar./Apr.) Today’s data release suggests that the labour market is now on the front foot. Admittedly, the unemployment rate may still rise over the rest of this year. But this will probably be due to people re... 18th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Near-term inflation pressures mount Near-term inflationary pressures appear to be building. Some of this reflects factors that are likely to be only temporary, such as the “reopening inflation” associated with the easing of virus... 17th May 2021 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the market implications of slower growth in China We think slowing economic growth in China – highlighted again by today’s economic data – has several key implications for the country’s financial markets. 17th May 2021 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Apr.) Year-on-year growth on all indicators dropped back last month. This partly reflects a less flattering base for comparison. But current momentum was also a bit softer, especially for retail sales. We... 17th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Focus Will we start working less? The downward trend in average working hours in advanced economies has slowed or stalled in the past few decades. Yet there are reasons to think that the decline will resume, at least in some sectors... 13th May 2021 · 19 mins read
Long Run Update China & US censuses: don’t count on catch-up The 2020 US and China censuses add to the reasons why we think China will struggle to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy. China’s birth rate has continued to fall and the population will... 11th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The more muted 266,000 increase in non-farm payrolls last month is a clear disappointment but, with much of the high-frequency data – including jobless claims – still improving rapidly, we doubt it... 7th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) The third coronavirus wave caused the labour market recovery to go into reverse in April and, with no imminent sign of the restrictions being eased, there is little chance of a meaningful rebound this... 7th May 2021 · 2 mins read
