Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Feb.) Wage growth weakened a little in February and we think it won’t be long before it turns negative as the coronavirus outbreak generates large amounts of slack in the labour market. 7th April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The 701,000 plunge in non-farm payrolls in March, which is already close to the worst monthly declines during the Global Financial Crisis, suggests the coronavirus pandemic started to decimate the... 3rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norwegian unemployment explodes close to 15% While the decline in the Swedish services PMI in March seems small compared to the eye-watering declines in the euro-zone, the underlying picture is worse than it may first appear. Next week, we... 3rd April 2020 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Initial Jobless Claims (w/e March 28th) This Update was originally sent to clients as a Rapid Response immediately after the data was released on 2nd April. The surge in initial jobless claims to a record high of 6,648,000 last week, from 3... 2nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will short-time work schemes save euro-zone jobs? Euro-zone unemployment will rise sharply in the coming months but short-time working schemes will help to prevent it from skyrocketing. While this will incur significant fiscal costs, the support to... 2nd April 2020 · 5 mins read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The Caixin manufacturing PMI strengthened last month from February’s abysmal levels and suggests that the contraction in activity has already bottomed out. But weak foreign demand and labour market... 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) While the Q1 Tankan survey held up slightly better than we were expecting, it still showed a marked deterioration in business conditions. And with sentiment set to deteriorate further as lockdowns... 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) & Ger. Unemp. (Mar.) The inflation rate in the euro-zone took a leg down in March, largely due to the slump in oil prices. With the economy taking on the verge of an unprecedented nose-dive, we expect headline inflation... 31st March 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Mar.) The latest survey data add to broader evidence that activity has started to rebound but suggest that weak foreign demand and labour market strains remain headwinds. 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Feb.) Activity indicators show that the economy continued to expand in February. Unfortunately, domestic and external demand have since collapsed, so output is set to contract sharply this year. 31st March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia: Wage subsidy won’t prevent surge in unemployment The government assumes that around a quarter of all employees will benefit from the huge wage subsidy unveiled today. Indeed, we now expect the unemployment rate to peak at 12% instead of our previous... 30th March 2020 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Labour market conditions continue to worsen Activity across both industry and services is recovering as measures to contain the coronavirus have been eased. But the recovery is likely to run into the constraint of weak demand before long. The... 27th March 2020 · 11 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Millions of job losses coming The March employment report is more or less irrelevant at this stage because we already know that millions of workers have been laid off since the survey was conducted earlier this month. For what it... 26th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German IAB Labour Market Barometer (Mar.) While the fall in the IAB Labour Market Barometer in March points to a modest increase in German unemployment in Q2, the fact that the survey largely pre-dates the ramp-up in containment measures... 26th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update New macro forecasts – Q2 GDP to fall at 40% pace With the number of COVID-19 cases in the US skyrocketing and a rising share of the population under lockdown, we need to revise our macro forecasts quite significantly: We now expect second-quarter... 25th March 2020 · 4 mins read
GDP to plunge as unemployment soars The complete shutdown of large parts of the economy suggests that GDP will plunge by 35% annualised in the second quarter and that the unemployment rate will climb to near 15% in the coming months. 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
