Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack 2020 to be better than 2019 Economic growth across the emerging world has slumped this year but, with the important exception of China, recoveries should take hold in 2020. Recent interest rate cuts will keep financial... 17th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Focus France labour market progress not due to reforms French President Emmanuel Macron’s emphasis on overhauling France’s ailing labour market is long overdue. But while there are signs that the changes are starting to take effect, the labour market... 17th December 2019 · 13 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Oct.) The larger-than-expected rise in employment in October suggests the labour market has stabilised, so the Monetary Policy Committee will probably hold off cutting interest rates at Thursday’s meeting... 17th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Fed to remain on side lines as economy heats up Although trade tensions and the presidential election remain key downside risks, we expect looser financial conditions to drive an acceleration in GDP growth from the second half of next year onwards... 16th December 2019 · 24 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stimulus failing to boost confidence Business confidence should pick up before long as the global economy has turned the corner. Even so, we expect GDP growth to fall short of its potential over the coming year, which underpins our... 13th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tax hike less damaging than previous ones The available data on retail sales, household spending as well as the Bank of Japan’s consumption activity index show that consumer spending fell broadly as much in October as in April 2014, when the... 11th December 2019 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2020 We think that GDP growth in both Australia and New Zealand will fall short of expectations, forcing both the RBNZ and the RBA to cut interest rates more sharply than most expect. The consensus is that... 10th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Labour Force Survey (Nov.) November’s slump in employment confirms that slowing GDP growth is spreading to the labour market. But with temporary factors exacerbating the fall, we don’t think it will concern policymakers too... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The much stronger than expected 266,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November was flattered by the return of 41,000 striking GM workers but, even allowing for that, it suggests labour market... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Oct.) Wage growth remained relatively strong in October but with the labour market loosening, we think earnings growth will settle around 0.5%. Meanwhile, the plunge in “core” household spending in October... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Q3 the high point in the regional recovery We estimate that regional GDP growth picked up to about 0.5% q/q in Q3, which would be the fastest pace in 18 months. But that probably marks the peak in the recovery. Argentina and Chile are set to... 29th November 2019 · 12 mins read
China Chart Pack December tariffs likely to be averted As things currently stand, the US is due to extend its punitive tariffs to cover nearly all goods imported from China in two weeks’ time. But the Trump administration has appeared keen to avoid that... 29th November 2019 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) November’s jump in inflation is unlikely to be the beginning of a sustained upward trend in price pressures. With employment growth slowing and slack in the labour market increasing, wage growth seems... 29th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Oct.) The sharp fall in industrial production in October suggests the economy might have been hit harder by the sales tax hike than we were expecting. And while the unemployment rate remained unchanged in... 29th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Core inflation hits multi-year highs across CEE Headline inflation has eased across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the past few months, but that was entirely due to falling food and fuel inflation; core price pressures have continued to... 28th November 2019 · 15 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Regional giants both stumble Figures released over the past month painted a very downbeat picture of economic conditions in Africa’s two largest economies. Growth in Nigeria did, admittedly, pick up a touch in Q3. But activity... 28th November 2019 · 14 mins read
