Japan Data Response Labour Market (Mar.) The unemployment rate rose in March and it’s set to spike much higher over the coming months. 28th April 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Hit to employment to prevent a perfect V-shaped recovery The big declines in retail sales volumes in March and in the PMI activity surveys in April make it clear that the slump in activity has been unprecedented in terms of its speed and its severity. We... 24th April 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly True unemployment at least double official figure The leadership has elevated “ensuring employment” to the top of its list of priorities. Unemployment is still low officially but the true rate is probably double the official figure. 24th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Panic buying and job losses Activity data for March showed that the economy held up better in Q1 than we had initially anticipated. Even so, new weekly labour market data point to a sharp deterioration in April, consistent with... 24th April 2020 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update How bad is the fallout in the labour market? The unemployment rate will surge to more than 15% in April but, unlike in a normal economic cycle, the high proportion of people on a temporary layoff leaves us hopeful that rate will come down... 23rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Shadow banking woes deepen Measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus will increase strains among traditional banks, but the shadow banking sector – still reeling from a large-scale default 18 months ago – is likely to... 22nd April 2020 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update Temporary immigration ban highlights longer-term risk President Trump’s tweet announcing a temporary ban on immigration is most likely just a short-term tactic to fire up his base. But it is hard not to see this as the beginning of an even more nativist... 21st April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Feb./Mar.) The small crack that appeared to be opening up in the labour market in March may soon turn into a chasm with the unemployment rate rising from 4% to almost 9%. 21st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Output to fall the most since Great Depression The restrictions imposed to limit the spread of the coronavirus will result in GDP falling at a double-digit rate in Australia and New Zealand in Q2. While activity will bounce back over the coming... 20th April 2020 · 20 mins read
Japan Chart Pack New cases not exploding but economic hit still huge A second wave of virus cases driven by rising infections in Tokyo and Osaka has triggered a major shift in economic behaviour. And while new cases in the two lynchpins of the Japanese economy have... 17th April 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Unemployment rate will rise sharply The official labour market statistics do not yet show a significant deterioration. But given the restrictions on activity and plunging confidence, we think the unemployment rate may jump to 12% before... 17th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Mar.) The coronavirus didn’t have a noticeable impact on the March labour market data but upcoming releases will show a sharp deterioration. The unemployment rate will probably be in double-digits before... 16th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Labour Force Survey (Mar.) The labour market was weaker in March than even the 1.0 million plunge in employment suggests, with a further 1.3 million people counted as employed but not working any hours. We think that employment... 9th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update UI expansion to cushion blow from layoffs The significant increase in unemployment insurance payments included in the recent fiscal package means that many claimants could end up being paid close to what they previously earned. This suggests... 8th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Output to fall more than during global financial crisis Lockdowns will soon be imposed across much of Japan, triggering a decline of more than 10% in economic activity this quarter. The government’s latest fiscal package is intended to help firms stay... 8th April 2020 · 19 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Carnage in the Swiss labour market The fact that almost one-third of the Swiss workforce has reportedly applied for short-time work is a sobering illustration of the scale of the virus-related economic disruption. While the headline... 7th April 2020 · 2 mins read
