Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Dec.) The small improvement in the Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) in December suggests household spending was slow to recover from October’s sales tax hike. Both household-related activity and employment... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Chances of policy easing diminishing The Bank of Japan will almost certainly leave policy settings unchanged when its forthcoming meeting concludes on 21st January as recent data have mostly been reassuring. And while we expect the... 14th January 2020 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The slowdown in payroll growth to a solid 145,000 last month shows that the economy is still creating more than enough jobs to keep pace with population growth. With economic growth bottoming out and... 10th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Labour Force Survey (Dec.) December’s partial rebound in employment shows that the bottom isn’t dropping out of the labour market, but the slump in wage growth underscores our forecast that core inflation is likely to decline... 10th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook EM catch-up to slow as globalisation stalls 10th January 2020 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Some good news for Q4 but 2020 still looks soft Trade and retail sales data for November both provided some reason to be optimistic about GDP growth in Q4. But looking past the positive headlines, we still think the outlook for domestic demand in... 10th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Nov.) While the increase in industrial production in November comes as a bit of a relief, it merely reversed the decline in the previous month and still means that output is likely to have fallen again in... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook The road to recovery After a year to forget in 2019, a combination of policy loosening and more effective measures to deal with the malaise in the shadow banking sector will push economic growth in India back up to a... 9th January 2020 · 19 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Growth to fall short of expectations The sales tax hike has not been as damaging as many had feared. But we remain more pessimistic about the outlook for global growth and domestic investment than most. That explains why we expect GDP to... 8th January 2020 · 22 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Nov.) Overall wage growth was the weakest it has been in six months in November and the increase in the unemployment rate we are anticipating should ensure it will remain soft over the coming months. We are... 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Continued solid gains in payrolls We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by 150,000 in December and, with the incoming survey data improving again, jobs growth looks set to remain solid throughout 2020 as well. 2nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Mixed end to a disappointing year The last round of economic data released this year pointed to a mixed performance in Latin America. Growth seems to have remained robust in Colombia in Q4 – and to have strengthened in Brazil – but... 19th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Unemployment rates will continue to rise in 2020 Annual GDP growth in Australia has probably bottomed out already but we expect growth to remain below potential in 2020. As such, jobs growth will probably not be strong enough to absorb the expansion... 19th December 2019 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Nov.) The renewed drop in the unemployment rate in November reduces the pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates but we still expect the labour market to soften further. 19th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa: A year to forget The final round of South African data released this year supported our view that the economy faltered in recent months. Output fell by 0.6% q/q saar in Q3, and the latest figures suggest that the... 18th December 2019 · 13 mins read
India Chart Pack Populist shift a risk for long-run outlook The citizen amendment bill – which aims to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslims from neighbouring Muslim-majority countries – has dominated the news over the past couple of weeks. This isn’t... 18th December 2019 · 9 mins read
