Europe Economics Update ECB resists the pressure, for now The European Central Bank today poured cold water on suggestions that it might cut interest rates as soon as next month. But with the economy clearly slowing and the euro hitting new record highs, it... 6th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC hamstrung by inflation worries Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to leave interest rates unchanged supports the view that it will continue to loosen policy at a cautious pace while inflation concerns persist. But... 6th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC hamstrung by inflation worries Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to leave interest rates unchanged supports the view that it will continue to loosen policy at a cautious pace while inflation concerns persist. But... 6th March 2008 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bank of Canada takes the initiative Signs that the downturn in the US is now having a marked impact on Canada prompted the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates by a bigger 50 basis points today, to 3.5%. (See Chart.) Moreover, the... 4th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rising LIBOR means that the MPC will have to work harder The recent renewed rise in interbank lending rates is an unwelcome development which means that the MPC will have to work harder to support economic activity. This supports our view that interest... 4th March 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Cracks in ECB's hawkish stance to widen We suspect that suggestions that the ECB will signal an imminent cut in interest rates at March’s Governing Council meeting will be disappointed. Nonetheless, with the new staff economic forecasts... 28th February 2008 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC willing to tolerate a sharp slowdown The recent economic news has deepened the dilemma facing the Monetary Policy Committee posed by slowing activity on the one hand and strengthening price pressures on the other. But recent speeches by... 28th February 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Slovakia: kicking out the koruna We expect Slovakia to be given the go-ahead to join the euro-zone from January next year, despite concerns over mounting medium-term inflationary pressures. This should give a renewed impetus to... 26th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC’s fears over inflation expectations appear overdone The MPC remains concerned that inflation expectations will fail to drop back later this year even as inflation itself falls. After all, this is exactly what happened last year. Nonetheless, there are... 21st February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pay growth remains well-behaved Today’s various releases brought tentative signs that the threat of a sharp pick-up in pay growth during the main start-of-year pay round is failing to materialise. Accordingly, this appears to be at... 20th February 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency weakness to prompt hike in Hungary (Feb 08) The focus this month will be on Hungary, where a recent drop in the forint could prompt a 50bps hike in interest rates. Elsewhere, another 25bps cut is possible in Turkey depending on currency... 19th February 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India: weathering the storm The latest data suggest that the Indian economy is holding up well despite the slowdown in the West. New statistics on output and prices suggest that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is under reduced... 13th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank raises rates to 4.25% The surprise decision by the Swedish Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.0% to 4.25% today confirmed that it remains concerned about the outlook for inflation. And with its latest interest rate... 13th February 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank raises rates to 4.25% The surprise decision by the Swedish Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.0% to 4.25% today confirmed that it remains concerned about the outlook for inflation. And with its latest interest rate... 13th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB starts to soften While the European Central Bank declined to follow the Fed and Bank of England in cutting interest rates today, tentative signs of a softening in its previously stubbornly hawkish stance support our... 7th February 2008 · 1 min read
