UK Economics Update Cautious loosening points to deeper downturn Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to cut interest rates by just 25 bps would seem to confirm that lingering inflation concerns will restrict policy loosening to a gradual pace over the... 7th February 2008 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to tread carefully Recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) communications have just about made a rate cut on Thursday a done deal. The recent equity market turmoil has raised the question of whether the MPC should follow... 31st January 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Interest rates heading for 3.0%, eventually The ECB is likely to maintain a hawkish stance at February’s Governing Council meeting and press conference, denting hopes that it might cut interest rates within a couple of months. But with the... 31st January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish interest rate expectations have fallen too far The Swedish economy has slowed in recent months, but with inflationary pressures still alive and kicking we expect the Riksbank’s response to be less aggressive than markets anticipate. Indeed, we... 30th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update King's re-appointment slightly hawkish, but safe Mervyn King’s re-appointment as Governor of the Bank of England for another five years is possibly a slightly hawkish development for the outlook for interest rates. Nonetheless, it will be seen as... 30th January 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish interest rate expectations have fallen too far The Swedish economy has slowed in recent months, but with inflationary pressures still alive and kicking we expect the Riksbank’s response to be less aggressive than markets anticipate. Indeed, we... 30th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB to cut rates to 3.0% We argued back in December that expectations that the ECB would raise interest rates this year would prove to be wrong. With economic activity in the region continuing to cool and other central banks... 23rd January 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan signals next move in rates is still up The Bank of Japan left rates on hold after its regular meeting today, as was universally expected. The main interest therefore lies in the Bank’s latest assessment of the economy and in Governor Fukui... 22nd January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Have interest rate expectations fallen too far? Expectations for UK interest rates have plummeted over the last few weeks. While we think that rates will eventually have to fall a long way, there must now be a risk that “hawkish” communications... 21st January 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy tightening set to resume in Poland (Jan 08) The focus this month will be on Poland, where we expect the National Bank to raise interest rates by 25bps in response to rising inflationary pressures. We expect policymakers elsewhere in the region... 18th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower LIBOR will not prevent interest rates falling to 4% The rapid fall in interbank interest rates towards more normal levels is a welcome development but does not negate the need for further cuts in official interest rates. The growing emergence that the... 11th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB hawkish for now, but next move will be down M. Trichet’s hawkish tone at today’s press conference confirmed that the ECB is unlikely to follow other major central banks in cutting interest rates in the near future. However, a further slowdown... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK rates still heading for 4% Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to leave interest rates on hold was purely a matter of timing. With the Committee apparently agreed that a significant monetary loosening is required... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK rates still heading for 4% Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to leave interest rates on hold was purely a matter of timing. With the Committee apparently agreed that a significant monetary loosening is required... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Falling pound won't do the MPC's job for it The recent sharp fall in the sterling trade-weighted exchange rate represents a loosening of monetary conditions in the UK economy. However, it is unlikely to prevent the Monetary Policy Committee... 7th January 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Hawkish stance to soften in H2 Concerns about the inflation outlook in the eurozone are likely to keep the ECB firmly in hawkish mood in the early months of 2008. But slowing activity, falling overseas interest rates and the... 3rd January 2008 · 1 min read
