Asia Economics Update Vietnam makes the right moves The change came a little earlier than we had expected, but today’s devaluation and policy rate hike in Vietnam was no surprise. The currency will probably fall further over the next 12 months even... 25th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan is probably finished cutting rates Today’s 50bps policy rate cut by the State Bank of Pakistan was expected but, we believe, is likely to be the last cut in the current cycle. Politics is clearly a wildcard but the economy has... 24th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia rates to stay low Bank Negara, as expected, today kept policy rates unchanged and again indicated that it will keep rates on hold for a prolonged period. The economy is picking up but the upswing is more fragile than... 24th November 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Easing-cycle may be over, but hikes are not imminent (Nov 09) After an aggressive easing of monetary policy over the past year, we now think that interest rates have troughed in Poland, Turkey and the Czech Republic. However policymakers in all three will retain... 20th November 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Thoughts turn to monetary tightening The recession in Latin America has, for the most part, ended and the pace of recovery is likely to remain strong over the next six to nine months. We have revised up our GDP growth forecasts for 2010... 19th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Markets too aggressive on Korean rate hikes to come The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate at 2.00% today. We believe the economic upswing is well established and that the political pressures on the BoK to hold rates low will probably ease early... 12th November 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB edging towards the exit The latest comments from the ECB suggest that it is edging slowly towards the policy stimulus exit. But the outstanding stock of central bank loans to ommercial banks will remain very high for some... 5th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update First Philippine rate rise still some way off Today the Philippine central bank, as expected, left its policy rate unchanged at 4% and retained a neutral bias. Damage from recent storms has made the near term outlook more uncertain. But we still... 5th November 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC scales down QE, but may not be finished The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to extend its quantitative easing (QE) programme by only £25bn today presumably reflects the recent improvement in some of the economic indicators. But with... 5th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia stays on hold but rate hikes still close Bank Indonesia (BI) left its policy rate at 6.5% today, as expected. The neutral bias was retained too, probably with the aim of trying to curb rupiah appreciation. Rupiah strength is relevant to the... 4th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian rates to keep rising near term but pause mid-2010 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate to 3.50% today, as expected. We still expect another hike in December but this is now not much firmer than a 50:50 call. The bigger picture is... 3rd November 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Falling unemployment eases pressure on Bank of Japan The Bank of Japan has announced a timetable for the withdrawal of some emergency facilities that have become increasingly redundant. But the Bank’s own forecasts of persistent deflation confirm that... 30th October 2009 · 1 min read
