Europe Economics Focus When will ECB rates no longer be "low"? The European Central Bank’s stance that euro-zone interest rates are still “low” suggests that it might have to raise them significantly further to contain inflation. But the existence of some spare... 20th February 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is Monetarism back from the dead? The greater attention devoted to the money supply in recent months does not herald the return of full-bloodied Monetarism as the key foundation of UK economic policy. Rather, it reflects current... 5th February 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Surprise hike by Norges Bank and plenty more to come Today’s surprise hike in interest rates by the Norges Bank lifts the official rate by 25bps to 3.75% andreopens a positive interest rate differential with the euro-zone for the first time in three... 24th January 2007 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Wages pick-up to drive Japan’s inflation and interest rates higher Japanese wage inflation has so far remained subdued despite the downward trend in unemploymentn since 2003. This probably reflects consumer uncertainty over the outlook for the economy, with employees... 24th January 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB signals further rate hikes to come Today’s decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to raise the target mid-point for the 3 month Libor by 25bps to 2.0% came as no surprise whatsoever. After all, the press statement accompanying its... 14th December 2006 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals next move likely to be March The Norges Bank hiked interest rates by 25bps to 3.5% today. This marks the seventh step in thetightening cycle which began in June 2005 and keeps rates tidily in line with those of the euro-zone.(See... 13th December 2006 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals significant further tightening The Norges Bank hiked interest rates by 25bps to 3.25% today. This marks the sixth step in the tightening cycle which began in August 2005 and keeps rates tidily in line with those of the euro-zone.... 1st November 2006 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Bank of Japan makes the case for the next rate hike This Focus assesses the implications of the Bank of Japan’s twice-yearly growth and inflation forecasts, published today in its “Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices”. In our view these provide... 31st October 2006 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Tankan supports case for another hike in Japanese interest rates Today’s strong Tankan survey of business conditions paves the way for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates again shortly. Although most analysis starts and finishes with the headline index... 2nd October 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How hard will higher interest rates hit Ireland? The Irish economy looks likely to be one of the heaviest sufferers from the upward trend in eurozone interest rates. As such, the consensus view that Irish economic growth will barely slow over the... 18th September 2006 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB continues to remove monetary stimulus It came as no surprise at all that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) today raised rates by a further 25bps (bringing the mid-point of its target range for the three month Libor to 1.75%). After all, the... 14th September 2006 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is the Japanese consumer flagging? Recent monthly indicators from the consumer sector have been surprisingly weak. This contrasts with the strength of household spending in the GDP data over the last year or so, and raises concerns... 30th August 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Euro’s strength won’t curb the ECB The recent appreciation of the euro exchange rate has led to suggestions that the European Central Bank can afford to take its finger off the interest rate trigger. After all, conventional indicators... 13th July 2006 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Tankan survey paves the way for rise in Japanese interest rates Today’s strong Tankan survey of business confidence in the second quarter paves the way for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates, most likely at its next meeting on July 14th. Although most... 3rd July 2006 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB well on the road to ‘normalisation' Today’s decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to raise the target mid-point for the 3 month Libor by 25bps to 1.5% came as very little surprise. Like the latest rise in ECB rates, today’s hike... 15th June 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Sterling’s rise eases pressure to raise rates The MPC’s latest forecasts suggested that interest rates would need to rise for the 2% inflation target to be hit. But these forecasts did not count on the recent rise in the sterling exchange rate... 30th May 2006 · 1 min read
