BoE Watch Another nail-biter After a nail-biter in December, January’s interest rate decision is shaping up to be just as close. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) seems pretty certain that rates need to fall significantly... 3rd January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Surging oil price won't stop interest rates falling a long way The rise in the oil price close to, and briefly through, the $100 per barrel level has prompted renewed concern over inflation. But the equally worrying implications for activity suggest that the... 3rd January 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB likely to stay on hold for some time The SNB was never likely to shock markets with an interest rate hike today, particularly in the current environment of uncertainty. While the Bank seems to have maintained a slight tightening bias, we... 13th December 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank’s tightening cycle not yet over The Norges Bank’s decision to raise interest rates today for the third time since the beginning of thefinancial market turmoil is in stark contrast to the actions of some other central banks. Given... 12th December 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policymakers to pause before Christmas break (Dec 07) As usual, December’s rate setting meetings in Central Europe have been brought forward a week to avoid a clash with the Christmas break. We expect interest rates to remain on hold across the region... 6th December 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How far will the ECB lag behind? The markets and most forecasters believe that the European Central Bank will sit on its hands and leave euro-zone interest rates unchanged throughout 2008 while the US Fed and UK MPC both loosen... 5th December 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland and Czech Rep. to hike, Hungary to cut (Nov 07) Brace yourselves for what could be an actionpacked series of rate-setting meetings next week. A 25bps hike in Polish interest rates is pretty much guaranteed following the spike in inflation last... 19th November 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus MPC may be too sanguine about housing again With the housing market clearly slowing, the key issue is the potential impact of this on the economy and, in particular, consumer spending. During 2005’s housing slowdown, the Monetary Policy... 12th November 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank strikes a more dovish tone Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to keep interest rates on hold and to lower its projection for the future path of rates could lead to a renewed weakening of the krone following the strengthening... 31st October 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus MPC may need to let high street spending slump The outlook for consumer price inflation hangs crucially on the strength of activity in the high street. If retail spending continues to grow at recent solid rates, retailers will pass on previous... 25th October 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further cut in Hungary looks likely (Oct 07) The future direction of interest rate movements across Central Europe remains clear cut - rates need to rise in Poland and the Czech Republic and fall in Hungary. But pinning down the likely timing of... 17th October 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank continues tightening cycle Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to raise interest rates for a second time since the turmoil in the financial markets is another demonstration that central banks are likely to remain focused on the... 26th September 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary cut looks on the cards (Sep 07) The focus this month will be on Hungary, where we think that interest rates are likely to be cut by 25bps, subject to ongoing developments in the currency markets. We expect policy makers elsewhere in... 18th September 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB hikes, but outlook blurred by market turmoil The Swiss National Bank (SNB)’s decision to hike rates adds to the evidence that the recent market turmoil does not preclude further policy tightening from central banks, especially when rates are... 13th September 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Strong Swiss growth supports case for September hike The further strong gain in Swiss GDP in Q2 suggests that capacity pressures are continuing to build. This could keep the SNB in tightening mode, despite recent financial market turbulence and still... 4th September 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals business as usual Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to press ahead with the previously indicated rise in its key interest rate from 4.5% to 4.75% supports our view that central banks are unlikely to be deflected from... 15th August 2007 · 1 min read
