Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold; next move still likely to be a cut The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its target range for three-month interest rates on hold (at amid-point of 2.75%) was a relief amid concerns that inflation fears might force the Bank to... 19th June 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Banks still in tightening mode (Jun 08) 17th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would cause interest rates to rise? The recent shift in market expectations for UK interest rates has been nothing short of dramatic. As Chart 1 shows, having previously been pricing in sharp falls in interest rates, the short sterling... 10th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would cause interest rates to rise? The recent shift in market expectations for UK interest rates has been nothing short of dramatic. As Chart 1 shows, having previously been pricing in sharp falls in interest rates, the short sterling... 10th June 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB signals intention to hike The European Central Bank sent a strong signal today that it is likely to raise interest rates in July or August. But the Bank’s inflation phobia clearly increases the risks of a sharp slowdown in the... 5th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC’s inaction points to deeper downturn The MPC‘s inaction on interest rates today confirms that inflation concerns are still hindering the Committee’s ability to respond to the ever-gloomier news on activity. The result will be a deeper... 5th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC’s inaction points to deeper downturn The MPC‘s inaction on interest rates today confirms that inflation concerns are still hindering the Committee’s ability to respond to the ever-gloomier news on activity. The result will be a deeper... 5th June 2008 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Near-term rate cuts off the agenda Not only does a June interest rate cut look out of the question, but the deterioration in the inflation outlook means that, unless the activity data start to look really dreadful, rates are unlikely... 29th May 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Still talking tough, but next move will be down ECB President Trichet will maintain a familiarly hawkish tone at June’s press conference, perhaps adding to speculation that interest rates could yet rise further. We still expect inflation to... 29th May 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus How can China boost domestic demand? Rebalancing of China’s economy away from investment and heavy industry will require significant reform of the financial sector and of monetary policy, including higher (not lower) interest rates... 28th May 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further rate hikes in the pipeline (May 08) 19th May 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Weaker currency prompts action by Danish central bank The unexpected rise in the Danmarks Nationalbank lending rate highlights the Bank’s commitment to keep the Danish krone tightly pegged to the euro. 16th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Slower rate cuts increase recession risks The recent dreadful news on inflation and the Bank of England’s hawkish Inflation Report suggest that interest rates will not fall as quickly this year as we had previously hoped – we have raised our... 15th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Slower rate cuts increase recession risks The recent dreadful news on inflation and the Bank of England’s hawkish Inflation Report suggest that interest rates will not fall as quickly this year as we had previously hoped – we have raised our... 15th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Slower rate cuts increase recession risks The recent dreadful news on inflation and the Bank of England’s hawkish Inflation Report suggest that interest rates will not fall as quickly this year as we had previously hoped – we have raised our... 15th May 2008 · 1 min read
