ECB Watch Staff forecasts to highlight weaker growth prospects Mounting evidence of a sharp slowdown in eurozone economic activity has caused the chances of another interest rate hike to evaporate. But the ECB is still deeply concerned about upside risks to... 28th August 2008 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Next rate cut edges closer The interest rate debate remains finely balanced, with lingering upside risks to inflation likely to keep interest rates on hold in September. However, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) appears to... 28th August 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai rates reach their peak With today’s rate hike, we think that the Bank of Thailand has probably done enough to keep inflation in check. Rates are likely to be left on hold into 2009, but attention will gradually turn to... 27th August 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update South-East Asian interest rates close to a peak The recent fall in the prices of oil and other commodities strengthens our view that the present tightening cycle in South-East Asia will be a short one. We expect regional interest rates to peak in... 19th August 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Tightening cycle drawing to a close (Aug 08) Interest rates are nearing their peaks across Emerging Europe. Indeed, policymakers in the Czech Republic actually cut interest rates by 25bps earlier this month and seem intent on reducing borrowing... 19th August 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB’s optimism likely to prove misplaced Upbeat comments from Swiss National Bank Chairman Jean-Pierre Roth in this morning’s press are atodds with our own view. While it is true that some aspects of the Swiss economy appear robust fornow... 19th August 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB on hold for some months yet Comments from the European Central Bank have retained a relatively hawkish tone, suggesting that it will be some time before the Bank is prepared to bolster the flagging economy with interest rate... 7th August 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update First Korean rate hike in 12 months also likely to be last We suspect that today’s 25bp rate hike from the Bank of Korea (BoK) will be a one-off move similar to the European Central Bank’s warning shot last month, rather than the first in a new tightening... 7th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Recession risks keep MPC on hold The growing likelihood of a recession, plus the recent falls in oil and commodity prices, kept the MPC’s finger off the interest rate trigger for another month. We continue to expect rates to be... 7th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Recession risks keep MPC on hold The growing likelihood of a recession, plus the recent falls in oil and commodity prices, kept the MPC’s finger off the interest rate trigger for another month. We continue to expect rates to be... 7th August 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Slowing activity will eventually prompt rate cuts Ongoing fears over the inflation outlook will leave the ECB in a fairly hawkish mood for now. But recent signs that the economy is stagnating (at best) support our view that interest rates will not... 31st July 2008 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Besley unlikely to muster a majority for a hike Inflationary pressures continue to prevent the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) from cutting interest rates in response to the deteriorating real economy. In fact, if interest rates change this month... 31st July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Utility hikes may mean that inflation peaks earlier The news that British Gas today became the second utility supplier to raise its prices means that inflation is likely to rise further and faster than we previously expected. But the silver lining is... 30th July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Ambitious inflation targets suggest more tightening to come By taking tougher than expected action, today’s rate hikes provide welcome reassurance that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is serious about tackling rising prices and will help keep inflation... 29th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update When will the MPC be able to sound the all clear on inflation? It might only be a few months before the MPC can conclude that the twin threats of rising wages growth and rising core inflation are not going to materialise. We still think there is a decent chance... 22nd July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines’ 50bp rate hike unlikely to be replicated elsewhere The decision by the Philippines’ central bank to raise the benchmark interest rate by a larger-thanexpected 50bp to 5.75% should not be taken as a signal that other Asian central banks are about to... 17th July 2008 · 1 min read
