Global Economics Update Canada first to hike rates in the G7 The Bank of Canada raised its key overnight rate by 0.25% today, to 0.50%, making Canada the first G7 country to see a rate hike. However, the tone of the accompanying statement suggests that this is... 1st June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s central bank has more work to do The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 4.50% today, as expected. The risk of an extended pause in policy rates has increased. Nevertheless, we still forecast that the next move will... 1st June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam still likely to raise rates again soon The central bank of Vietnam (SBV) yesterday, as expected, announced that its key policy rate will stay unchanged at 8.0% during June. Nevertheless, the cash rate looks too low for an economy that will... 1st June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly OECD wide of the mark on interest rates Our initial response to the OECD’s recommendation that UK interest rates should rise to 3.5% by the end of next year (“completely mad”) may have been a bit extreme. Nonetheless, it seems to neglect... 31st May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates going nowhere regardless of new NBP Governor The proposed appointment of Marek Belka, a well-respected, pro-market economist, as the new Governor of the National Bank of Poland is not yet a done deal. But regardless of who takes over at the helm... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil to hike again, despite market turmoil A clear divergence in the outlook for monetary policy across the region has opened up over the past month. Policymakers in Brazil have signalled that they will act aggressively to calm fears about... 25th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan unlikely to cut rates in 2010 The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) today, as expected, left its policy rate unchanged at 12.50%. We forecast that rates will be kept on hold into 2011. The economic upswing should continue but inflation... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand started 2010 well but what happens from here? Q1 GDP in Thailand, published today, beat expectations but the most significant announcement in recent days was one from the Finance Minister, who stated that the government was “highly unlikely” to... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam outlook continues to improve The central bank in Vietnam will set interest rates for June over the next few days and will probably keep the base rate unchanged at 8.00%, rather than move rates up. The easing of credit conditions... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC right to be sanguine on inflation, for now Last week’s letter from Mervyn King to the new Chancellor George Osborne after inflation surprised on the upside again drew accusations that the Governor is being dangerously sanguine on the inflation... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weaker euro-zone to stem Swiss recovery Switzerland’s low levels of public and private sector debt suggest that it will continue to out-grow the euro-zone over the next couple of years. But it will suffer from strong trade links with the... 19th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (May.) The minutes of May’s MPC confirmed that the Committee as a whole is still singing from the same Dovish hymn sheet as the Governor. Interest rates are unlikely to rise for a long time and further... 19th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (May.) The minutes of May’s MPC confirmed that the Committee as a whole is still singing from the same Dovish hymn sheet as the Governor. Interest rates are unlikely to rise for a long time and further... 19th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Politics comes into play in Hungary (May 10) Concerns that the new government in Hungary will jeopardise the independence of the National Bank appear to be coming to fruition. While much remains uncertain, it seems clear that PM Orban will now... 18th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What to make of the ECB’s bond purchases Fears that the ECBs bond purchases will stoke inflation or encourage fiscal laxity are overblown. They do not constitute full-blown quantitative easing and will not allow euro-zone economies to escape... 18th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India will probably hike rates again in June Data from India released late last week showed inflation pressures remain high while the economic upswing has stayed strong. Further monetary tightening is only a matter of time and we expect that... 17th May 2010 · 1 min read
