Global Economic Outlook US recovery, European recession We expect world GDP to grow by around 3% both this year and next. The US economy is set to recover steadily but the euro-zone recession will deepen, causing the sovereign debt crisis to flare up again... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Extending APP horizon could allow ¥20tr of JGB purchases Expectations that the Bank of Japan will announce a further increase in asset purchases alongside the publication of updated economic forecasts on Friday are now so high that the Policy Board will... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus What more can the Bank of Japan do? Many commentators appear to believe that Japan’s economy could recover from deflation and grow more strongly if only the Bank of Japan were willing to step up its asset purchases. Some also argue that... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada hoping for the best The Bank of Canada's April Monetary Policy Report paints a fairly upbeat picture for GDP growth this year and next. We think that this is unlikely to materialise, however, mainly because of the... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s interest rate floor revisited The decision earlier this week by Brazil’s central bank (BCB) to cut interest rates once again – and signal further easing ahead – has revived talk about a “floor” on interest rates in Latin America’s... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How is growth shaping up in Latin America? It was beginning to feel like somebody had turned the clock back twelve months. With the first quarter of 2012 bringing a renewed sense of calm to global markets and a rebound in activity across the... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Asia well placed to withstand weaker global growth Asia is well placed to withstand the impact of any major shocks to the global economy. The health of economic fundamentals and policymakers’ room for stimulus should enable the region to grow by just... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates on hold in the Philippines due to inflation risks The Philippines central bank (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold today at 4.0%, as expected. However, with inflationary pressures likely to remain moderate and global growth set to disappoint this... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazilian rates? The decision by the Central Bank of Brazil last night to cut interest rates by 75bps to 9% was widely expected. Instead, the critical issue for investors is whether this marks the end of the current... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed unlikely to signal a move in either direction We doubt that the FOMC's upcoming two-day meeting, which concludes on Wednesday 25th April, will throw up any major changes. The minutes from the last meeting revealed little appetite among Fed... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Apr.) & Labour Market Data (Feb./Mar.) April’s fairly hawkish MPC minutes left it looking more likely that the Committee will pause its quantitative easing (QE) programme once the purchases currently underway are completed next month. But... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile, Peru signal near-term rate change unlikely Both Chile and Peru kept interest rates unchanged in April and signalled that moves in either direction are unlikely in the near-term. Further ahead, if we are right in expecting the global economic... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Debt concerns still dominating the Riksbank’s thoughts The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.0% was no surprise given the recent run of encouraging economic data. But while the chances of an imminent cut have perhaps... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada signals possible rate increases The Bank of Canada's policy statement, which pledged to keep interest rates at 1.0% for now, signalled that some small increases might soon be needed. This hawkish change from last month’s fairly... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India cuts repo rate, prioritising growth The Reserve Bank of India cut its key policy rate by 50bp today in response to slower growth and a fall in underlying inflation. We suspect it will deliver a further 50bp of rate cuts by year-end as... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The annual growth rates of the broad monetary aggregates slowed only marginally in March, with the growth rate of our measure of M3 easing from 6.1% to a still very healthy 5.8% last month. 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
