UK Economics Update Interest rate expectations have much further to fall The markets have once again started to anticipate cuts in UK interest rates. But if our expectations of the severity of the downturn in the economy prove even half right, rate expectations have a lot... 16th July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai rate hike the first of a brief tightening cycle Thailand’s decision to raise interest rates today (by 25bps to 3.5%) was the first in more than two years. However, growing downside risks to growth, despite the recently announced fiscal stimulus... 16th July 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further hikes to come in Turkey (Jul 08) All the focus over the coming months will be on Turkey, where we expect policymakers to follow up a likely rate hike this week with further monetary tightening. Elsewhere in the region, while... 15th July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea turns to forex intervention to fight inflation The Bank of Korea (BoK) held official rates at 5.00% today, as widely expected. The accompanying statement highlighted the growing dilemma facing the BoK. But successful interventions to prop up the... 10th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC can only watch as recession looms The MPC’s inaction today in the face of a torrent of dreadful news on the economy underlines the extent to which its hands are tied by the current strength of inflation pressures. There is little it... 10th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC can only watch as recession looms The MPC’s inaction today in the face of a torrent of dreadful news on the economy underlines the extent to which its hands are tied by the current strength of inflation pressures. There is little it... 10th July 2008 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC unable to prevent recession An interest rate cut is desperately needed to support the rapidly deteriorating economy. But inflationary pressures continue to tie the Monetary Policy Committee’s hands. The chances of an interest... 3rd July 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB not pre-disposed to further rate hikes A softer tone from the European Central Bank has supported our view that today’s interest rate hike will not be the first in a series. Indeed, given more signs lately of a marked slowdown in economic... 3rd July 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank signals further rate increases The decision by the Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.25% to 4.50% was widely expected, but the Bank’s signal that rates could rise twice more this year shows that it believes the economy will... 3rd July 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank signals further rate increases The decision by the Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.25% to 4.50% was widely expected, but the Bank’s signal that rates could rise twice more this year shows that it believes the economy will... 3rd July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Next rate move in Australia will be a cut We think that Australian interest rates will be cut by the end of this year and eventually fall to 6% (from 7.25%) by the end of 2009. In contrast, the markets are currently pricing in a 75% chance... 2nd July 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Rate hike will prove to be a one-off The ECB will deliver the signalled interest rate hike this month, despite further evidence of a slowdown in economic activity in the euro-zone. Inflation fears could keep the Bank in hawkish mode for... 26th June 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank responds to inflation concerns The Norges Bank’s decision to raise interest rates again today clearly shows that it remains concerned about rising inflationary pressures. This will support the Norwegian krone in the near term. 25th June 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank responds to inflation concerns The Norges Bank’s decision to raise interest rates again today clearly shows that it remains concerned about rising inflationary pressures. This will support the Norwegian krone in the near term. 25th June 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India tries to get ahead of the curve with more rate hikes The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) today announced a 50bp hike in the repurchase rate, to 8.5%, and plans for two 25bp hikes in the cash reserve ratio next month, taking it to 8.75%. The move is an... 24th June 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB on hold; next move still likely to be a cut The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its target range for three-month interest rates on hold (at a mid-point of 2.75%) was a relief amid concerns that inflation fears might force the Bank to... 19th June 2008 · 1 min read
