Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak zloty a cause for concern, but shouldn’t justify rate hikes The recent sell-off in the zloty will make it harder for the Polish government to keep public debt from breaching constitutionally mandated ceilings. In the extreme, policymakers face the risk of... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan still biased towards further easing There is no real substance to suggestions that the lack of any explicit reference to “powerful” easing in the Bank of Japan’s policy statement today signals a shift towards a more neutral stance... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (May) & Retail Sales (Apr.) The relatively dovish tone of the minutes of May’s MPC meeting suggested that the door to more quantitative easing (QE) is still open. We continue to expect the asset purchases to be resumed soon. 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Better placed than most to weather Greece exit storm Political deadlock in Greece has re-ignited market fears of euro-zone break-up. While Asia would not escape unscathed from turmoil associated with Greece’s departure from the currency union, the... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Policy Board to take stock and reassess its options The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board meeting next week is likely to be uneventful in so far as we are don’t expect to see any change in the asset purchase program. Nonetheless, it may still be important... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery looks to be on firmer ground The US recovery looks to be on firmer ground, despite the mounting crisis in the euro-zone. We anticipate GDP growth of 2.0% this year and 2.5% in 2013. 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update From currency wars to interest rate wars Not content with waging a “currency war” against the rest of the world, Brazil’s government is now doing battle with its own banks over the high interest rates charged on loans to consumers and... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (May) May’s Bank of England Inflation Report struck a gloomy tone, suggesting that sticky inflation is preventing the MPC from doing anything to offset the deterioration in the growth outlook. However, we... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Presidential election may make QE3 even less likely A look back at history throws cold water over suggestions that the Fed tends to alter its behaviour ahead of Presidential elections. Nonetheless, with political hostility towards the Fed currently... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Will the Reserve Bank‘s support for the rupee succeed? We doubt that the Reserve Bank of India’s recent efforts to prop up the rupee will succeed. However, this may be a good thing, as India would benefit from a more competitive currency. 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysian central bank is playing a waiting game Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its policy rate unchanged at 3% today, as expected. There have been signs of a slowdown in the economy in early 2012, and low inflation gives BNM room to cut. We still... 11th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP data should impress – but can it last? The raft of Q1 GDP data due to be released over the coming weeks will confirm that, having been on the brink of a crisis towards the end of last year, most economies in Emerging Europe have since... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update QE3 likely later this year Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to pause its programme of asset purchases shows that the Committee is putting greater weight on the recent stickiness of inflation than the poor... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea inflation worries to dissipate The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate at 3.25% today, as expected. Given that inflation is in retreat and concerns for the global economy are on the rise, we think the BoK’s stance will soon... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is this Poland’s “ECB moment”? The post-MPC press conference did not provide much clarity on whether this morning’s surprise hike in Polish interest rates was a one-off event or the start of a new tightening cycle. On balance, we... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC won’t pause for long The recent weakness of the activity data has made this week’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision much trickier than looked to be the case a few weeks ago. On balance, we think that the Committee... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
