Europe Economics Weekly Weak start to Q3; ECB unlikely to change QT for now This week’s data show that the euro-zone economy continued to expand only slowly at the start of Q3. We forecast growth to pick up a bit in the coming quarters but not as much as the consensus expects... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Inflation will continue to overshoot BoJ’s forecasts Given that Governor Ueda is still sounding very non-committal about the timing of the next rate hike, the two hawkish dissents at this week’s BoJ meeting could well prove to be a red herring. But with... 19th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan inching towards tighter policy While the two dissents by BoJ Board members could be a red herring, we’re sticking to our long-held view that the Bank will resume its tightening cycle next month and lift rates to 1.5% by 2027. Note... 19th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ will cut further to revive the ailing economy With New Zealand’s real GDP having plunged last quarter, the output gap is now at its most negative level since the Global Financial Crisis. The excess capacity in the economy will exert downward... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) The Bank of Japan will probably look past the ongoing fall in headline inflation, given that underlying inflation is holding up reasonably well. Accordingly, we still think there’s a case for the Bank... 19th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) We expect growth to average more than 2.0% annualised in the second half of the year. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited pass-through of tariffs to consumer prices has opened the... 18th September 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Fed and the Gulf, Saudi’s GBI inclusion, BAM meeting Central banks in the Gulf followed the Fed by cutting interest rates by 25bp, but the backdrop of lower oil prices is likely to temper the impact of looser monetary policy on credit growth. Meanwhile... 18th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB holds, but the pause won’t last long The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left the repo rate at 7.00%, but the decision was split with some MPC members voting for another cut. And with growth still sluggish, inflation weak, and... 18th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Regional pick up, but divergence under the surface The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest GDP growth – outside of the post-pandemic recovery – in well over a decade over the course of 2026-27. Egypt and Morocco are emerging as... 18th September 2025 · 22 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to avoid negative rates… for now SNB policymakers have recently pushed back against the prospect of lowering interest rates below zero, so they are likely to leave the policy rate at zero next week. However, we think inflation will... 18th September 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE unlikely to cut interest rates again this year While leaving interest rates at 4.00% today (as expected) and signalling that rates will still fall from here, the Bank of England reiterated its concerns over rising inflation. As a result, we... 18th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Is Indonesia making a policy mistake? Policymakers in Indonesia can make a case that more monetary and fiscal support is warranted given the economic drag from recent protests and flooding as well as US tariffs, and the backdrop of low... 18th September 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (18th Sep. 2025) For updated and more detailed analysis see here. While leaving interest rates at 4.00% today (as expected) and signalling that rates will still fall from here, the Bank of England reiterated its... 18th September 2025 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (September 2025) After an exceptionally strong first half of 2025, India’s economy faces a more challenging rest of this year and 2026 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if... 18th September 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Stagnation in Russia, fragile recoveries in CEE The economies of Emerging Europe will diverge over the coming year as Russia’s war economy continues to run out of steam, while growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) picks up – albeit to varying... 18th September 2025 · 22 mins read
