DM Markets Chart Pack

Global Markets Chart Pack (May 2024)

Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think the Fed and most other DM central banks will be able to ease monetary policy this...

29th May 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (May. 2024)

Regional growth appears to have stabilised in Q1 and we think that a better external environment will provide a boost in the near term. Still, we think GDP growth will undershoot consensus...

28th May 2024 · 0 mins read

Capital Daily

Have JGB yields found their sweet spot?

The yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) is now almost where we forecast it to be at the end of the year. Admittedly, we doubt that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will tighten policy as quickly...

28th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (May 2024)

The decline in Brazilian inflation to 3.7% y/y in the first half of this month, coupled with signs of easing price pressures in some core categories, will provide relief to policymakers at the central...

28th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

​​RBNZ policy changes will ease lending standards​

The debt-to-income restrictions launched by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today won’t restrict the flow of new mortgage lending. In fact, the concurrent easing of restrictions on loan-to-value...

28th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Mission (almost) accomplished

The further fall in headline inflation in April, to a three-year low of 2.6%, means the 2% target could be achieved as soon as August. Whether the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates in a couple of...

24th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA elections: Can the ANC hold on? Kenya-US visit

There’s less than a week to go until South Africa’s pivotal election and there remains significant uncertainty about the ANC’s likely vote share and, if it’s forced to go into coalition, who it will...

24th May 2024 · 7 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Fed in wait-and-see mode

The minutes of the Fed’s early May policy meeting were, not surprisingly given the backdrop of data releases ahead of that meeting, somewhat hawkish. The resilience of economic growth and employment...

24th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s vote, Chile’s rate cut, Argentina’s trade surplus

The dramatic improvement in Argentina’s trade balance has helped the central bank to rebuild its FX reserves, but this has only been made possible because domestic demand has collapsed. A weaker...

24th May 2024 · 6 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Is PM Modi on the backfoot?

As India’s mammoth general election enters its final week, a narrative that has unfolded in the international media is a waning of popular support for Prime Minister Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP...

24th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Singapore slowdown, Thailand’s weak recovery

GDP growth in Singapore slowed sharply in the first quarter of the year, and the outlook for the rest of 2024 is very poor, with a weakening labour market, tighter fiscal policy and subdued global...

24th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Upcoming Shunto will thwart further policy tightening

The recent sharp slowdown in underlying inflation isn't inconsistent with the Bank of Japan's view that most of the previous strength in inflation was driven by an import cost that is now fading...

24th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Weaker consumption would lift risk of earlier rate cut

Whereas the Reserve Bank of Australia expects the household savings rate to rise over the course of this year, we think that households will lift real consumption alongside a likely rebound in real...

24th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs offer some better news on services price pressures

The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth in advanced economies has continued to gain momentum in Q2. And central banks may take comfort in the fact that services price pressures seem to be easing...

23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Update

Smaller and slower falls in inflation and interest rates

We still think inflation will fall faster than the Bank of England is expecting, but in the light of April’s CPI release we now expect the downward trend to be slower and smaller. As a result, we have...

23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read