Event

UK Drop-In: April CPI and the Bank of England’s path to rate cuts

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We think the Bank of England will decide to start cutting rates at its next meeting, but there’s a series of crucial data releases between now and that policy decision on 20th

Event

Europe Drop-In: The start of the ECB rate cut cycle?

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We think the ECB’s June meeting will mark the start of a more aggressive rate cutting cycle than markets are currently pricing.

Global Economics Update

Europe is leading the cutting cycle, but will it last?

Contrary to the earlier assumption that the US Federal Reserve would lead the monetary policy loosening cycle among advanced economies, it is Switzerland and Sweden that have cut first. This has...

14th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Copom minutes (May 2024)

The minutes to last week’s Brazilian central bank meeting suggest that the balance on Copom is, overall, more cautious than had been widely assumed immediately after the meeting. That may provide some...

14th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ to cut rates more aggressively than most expect

We expect the RBNZ to leave policy settings unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the domestic economic backdrop is clearly weak, lingering risks around inflation persistence means policy...

14th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Capital Daily

JGB yields may keep going it alone, helping the yen

While we expect government bond yields in most developed markets to fall back, we think that those in Japan will stabilise around their current levels. In turn, we anticipate that interest rate...

13th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (May)

Romania’s central bank (NBR) left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% today, in contrast to consensus expectations for a cut but in line with our own forecast. With inflation pressures falling more...

13th May 2024 · 2 mins read

India Rapid Response

India Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024)

Headline consumer price inflation edged down in April to an 11-month low and, looking ahead, we think it will reach the RBI’s 4% long-term target by the middle of the year. We remain comfortable with...

13th May 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.)

Broad credit growth slowed sharply to its weakest pace on record last month. This threatens to derail the ongoing economic recovery and is likely to trigger additional policy easing. Increased fiscal...

13th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA elections and inflation target, Angola debt

Electioneering in South Africa heated up this week as parties openly warned of the different scenarios that could emerge after this month’s polls. The scenario that is most worrying remains a left...

10th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Bank to wait a little longer before cutting interest rates

The strength of the April labour market data means we now expect the Bank of Canada to begin its loosening cycle in July, rather than June. Nonetheless, the sharp growth in labour supply and...

10th May 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

No need to panic about a US-style surge in GDP (yet)

The 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 was the largest quarterly rise since Q4 2021 and has triggered fears that the UK could be heading for a US-style surge in GDP growth that prevents inflation from...

10th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

BSP to sound dovish, inflation eases in Taiwan

The central bank in the Philippines is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its scheduled meeting on Thursday. However, the sharp slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter means the BSP...

10th May 2024 · 6 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Why we still think rate cuts will commence in Q3

The consensus is now expecting the RBI to begin its easing cycle in Q4. But the inflation outlook, as well as recent measures to ease liquidity constraints, suggest to us that a policy pivot will...

10th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (April 2024)

The fall in Brazilian inflation to 3.7% y/y last month and, more importantly, the sharp decline in underlying services inflation suggests that, despite the hawkish language in the Copom statement on...

10th May 2024 · 2 mins read