UK Weekly: Trump’s tariffs not a game changer for the UK

It’s clear the markets have concluded that Trump’s tariffs have increased the downside risks to activity that the Bank of England is worried about. But the uncertain influence of tariffs on CPI inflation means the Bank can’t conclude the upside risks to inflation have faded. For now, we still think the Bank will pause its interest rate cutting cycle later this year, although Trump’s tariffs mean a pause has now become less likely.