Africa Economic Outlook

Looser monetary policy, stronger growth

Growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to pick up over the next couple of years helped by a more stable macro environment, lower inflation and looser monetary policy, with many central banks set to...

26th September 2025 · 19 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Euro-zone activity and sentiment remain subdued

Economic growth in the euro-zone is likely to pick up a bit heading into next year, but we suspect that the improvement will be more muted than most anticipate. And the data released this week show no...

26th September 2025 · 8 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Will the weak rupee constrain the RBI?

The Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate decision next week is likely to be a close call. While the weakness of the rupee is a consideration for the bank, external vulnerabilities are far smaller...

26th September 2025 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Data flashing mixed signals, New RBNZ governor

With Australian inflation surprising to the upside in August, markets now expect the RBA to deliver just one more 25bp cut this cycle, rather than two. However, with business surveys showing output...

26th September 2025 · 3 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Manufacturers starting to shift production to US

Falling US-bound exports are a headwind to economic activity in Japan. But as long as firms are able to keep serving US customers via their US subsidiaries, the impact on corporate profits, investment...

26th September 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.)

Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) delivered another 25bp interest rate cut, to 7.50%, at its meeting today and the communications were broadly unchanged, suggesting that easing will continue at the...

25th September 2025 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (September 2025)

The latest data are consistent with the world economy having recovered a bit more momentum in Q3. Industry has held up well, world trade has shrugged off tariffs, and an AI investment boom is underway...

25th September 2025 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Lebanon’s debt, Saudi & Dubai real estate

Lebanon’s Eurobonds are trading at their strongest in over four years as investors’ hopes of a sovereign debt restructuring build amid the new government’s reform push. But we’d caution that, for a...

25th September 2025 · 7 mins read

Asia Economic Outlook

Soft growth ahead, region to weather tariff threat

Asia’s economies look set for further weak growth over the rest of this year and to the end of 2026, as tighter fiscal policy and softer exports outweigh resilient consumption, which is being...

25th September 2025 · 25 mins read

Capital Daily

What to make of the Swiss-Japanese yield divergence

Yields in Switzerland and Japan may diverge even further over the next couple of years. But we don’t think Japan’s escape from zero rates will diminish the yen’s relative appeal as a safe haven.

25th September 2025 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (September 2025)

While the SNB kept its policy rate at zero today and left its inflation forecast unchanged, we still expect policymakers to cut the policy rate into negative territory over the coming quarters. We...

25th September 2025 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

A tale of two recoveries

The Australian economy bounced back strongly in Q2, and it increasingly appears that the recovery has legs. In contrast, the New Zealand economy remains mired in a deep slump, and we believe that it...

25th September 2025 · 20 mins read

China Economic Outlook

Growth weak but stable

China’s economy is much weaker than official figures suggest, but growth has held steady this year despite US tariffs. While both exports and fiscal spending will continue to support the economy over...

24th September 2025 · 16 mins read

Canada Economics Update

How concerning is elevated long-run unemployment?

We suspect the main reason why the long-run unemployment rate has shot up is the surge in immigration since the pandemic, as many of these migrants have struggled to find work. This suggests the...

24th September 2025 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.)

The Czech National Bank left its policy rate on hold again today, at 3.50%, and in contrast to many analysts who still expect interest rates to be lowered further next year, we think that the risks...

24th September 2025 · 2 mins read