India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Sep. 2025) India’s headline consumer price inflation fell sharply in September and with the outlook generally benign and the economy set to cool, we think the central bank will resume its easing cycle in the... 13th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ceasefire in Gaza, NBP’s dovish surprise The ceasefire in Gaza which came into force today will, if it proves lasting, support the ongoing recovery in Israel’s economy and makes an interest rate cut by the central bank at its next meeting... 10th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ’s easing cycle will be over by year-end We were among the minority of analysts who correctly predicted that the RBNZ would slash its policy rate by 50bp this week and we still expect another 25bbp cut at its November meeting. However... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Fiscal uncertainty adds to case for BoJ inaction Sanae Takaichi won Saturday’s LDP leadership elections but is struggling to gather enough support in parliament to become PM as long-standing partner Komeito has threatened to abandon the coalition... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Why are the UK’s borrowing costs higher than France’s? The UK’s high borrowing costs relative to those of France appears to reflect differences in monetary policy and its higher inflation rate, rather than greater fiscal concerns. As inflation in the UK... 9th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil & Mexico CPI (Sep. 2025) The small increases in inflation in Brazil and Mexico in September are unlikely to have a material impact on the next interest rate meetings in both countries. In Brazil, while an easing cycle is... 9th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How much will ETS2 add to euro-zone inflation? The introduction of the EU’s Emissions Trading System 2 will add only a small amount to headline inflation in the euro-zone in 2027, perhaps just 0.1 percentage points. So ETS2 is unlikely to be... 9th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Has the threat from QT passed? Quantitative tightening has not been the main driver of higher bond yields in recent years, but it has contributed. With the process now at or near an end in the US and Canada, the threat that further... 9th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Philippines Monetary Policy Announcement (October) 9th October 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Sep 16-17) The minutes of the Fed’s mid-September FOMC meeting confirm that “most participants observed that it was appropriate to move the target range for the federal funds rate toward a more neutral setting”... 8th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 4.50%, was a dovish surprise to most analysts (including ourselves), although we think the scope for further... 8th October 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Answering your questions on the economic outlook and AI We held an online Drop-in session yesterday (see here for a recording) to discuss the US economic outlook. This Update answers several of the questions we received, including the role that AI will... 8th October 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The National Bank of Romania left its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, and despite signs that the economy is struggling in response to recent fiscal tightening, we think interest rates will be... 8th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (October 2025) We expect euro-zone GDP growth to remain fairly slow in the coming years. Germany’s fiscal stimulus should provide a temporary and fairly modest boost, but we don’t think that it will do much to raise... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) The prospect of around £27bn of tax hikes in the Budget on 26th November poses a downside risk to our forecast for GDP to grow by 1.2% in 2026 and by 1.5% in 2027. But it adds to our views that CPI... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
