Latin America Economics Update Answering your questions on Mexico’s election Our initial response to Claudia Sheinbaum’s victory in Mexico’s presidential election can be found here. We also held a Drop-in earlier today. This Update summarises the key points that we discussed... 3rd June 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP data unlikely to sway the Bank The weaker-than-expected first-quarter GDP data and downward revision to fourth-quarter growth caused markets to price in a higher chance that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates next week... 31st May 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA elections: State of play & implications for the SARB South Africa’s election results have continued to trickle in, but the overriding message since the early hours of the count is that the ANC has fallen well short of a majority. A coalition with one of... 31st May 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to cut rates; SNB to sell FX assets? The key event next week will be Thursday’s ECB meeting when we think the Bank will cut the deposit rate from 4.0% to 3.75%. But strong services inflation in May and strong wage growth in Q1 may... 31st May 2024 · 7 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to cut rates at 6th June meeting, then pause Having agreed to do so at their last meeting, we think the ECB Governing Council will go ahead and cut the deposit rate by 25bp next week, to 3.75%. As the recent inflation data have been a bit higher... 31st May 2024 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam: Rates to end the year lower, not higher The risk of monetary tightening in Vietnam has risen over the past few weeks due to concerns about the currency and inflation. We still think a rate hike is unlikely. But even if the central bank (SBV... 31st May 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (May 2024) May’s increases in headline and core inflation – and jump in services inflation to a seven-month high – won’t stop the ECB from cutting interest rates next week. But another reduction in July now... 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly What to watch for in a momentous week India's general election is coming to an end and from a macro perspective the key thing for investors to watch for is whether it delivers a government that has a working parliamentary majority that... 31st May 2024 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (May 24) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy is expanding at a decent pace, with the manufacturing sector a key source of... 30th May 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Emerging Asia Chart Pack (May 2024) Headline inflation across most of Emerging Asia is now either below or only slightly above central bank targets. Nevertheless, policymakers have struck a slightly more hawkish tone recently due to... 30th May 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New forecasts for Swedish inflation and the Riksbank During the coming months, we expect falling goods and energy inflation to pull down the headline inflation rate in Sweden. This should encourage policymakers to cut rates from 3.75% currently to 3.00%... 30th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Interest Rate Announcement (May) The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to leave the repo rate unchanged at 8.25% was never in doubt. Governor Kganyago said as little about the election as was possible, but the MPC will be... 30th May 2024 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch Change in policy stance looks imminent The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will almost certainly keep the repo rate on hold at 6.50% at the conclusion of its MPC meeting on Friday, 7th June. But we think that the committee will lay the... 30th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: bond sell-off intensifies as the war effort steps up Sovereign bond yields in Russia have surged to multi-year highs this year as markets have increasingly questioned the trade-off between the war effort on the one hand and policymakers’ ability to... 29th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Caution favours the hold The rapid easing in core inflation pressures this year means the Bank of Canada is set to cut interest rates either next week or in July. While it will be a very close call, the recent resilience of... 29th May 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What would a Sheinbaum presidency mean for Mexico? A victory for Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico’s election on Sunday is likely to see a continuation of Amlo’s generous social policies – which will also make Banxico’s fight against inflation harder. The... 29th May 2024 · 4 mins read
