Emerging Europe Economics Focus The macro implications of the Czech election The latest polling ahead of the Czech parliamentary election this weekend suggests that the right-wing populist opposition party, ANO, will gain the highest share of votes and may form a coalition... 1st October 2025 · 17 mins read
India Economics Update RBI opens door to further policy easing The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) opted to keep the repo rate on hold at 5.50% today but has left the door open for a resumption in the easing cycle over the coming months. We still expect the repo rate... 1st October 2025 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will cut rates by 50bp next week Although financial markets aren’t fully convinced, we believe the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will lower its policy rate by 50bp at its meeting ending on 8 th October. With the output gap deeply... 1st October 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 25) Growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to pick up over the next couple of years helped by a more stable macro environment, lower inflation and looser monetary policy, with many central banks set to... 30th September 2025 · 0 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 25) Growth has remained broadly stable since the start of the year, despite US tariffs. Still, the economy is weaker than official figures suggest. Fiscal support and exports will continue to be key... 30th September 2025 · 0 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates to 3.1% in early-2026 While the RBA predictably left rates on hold at its meeting today, its relatively hawkish messaging raises the risk that its easing cycle will be more drawn out than we’re currently expecting. That... 30th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Sep. 2025) While the RBA’s decision to leave rates on hold today was all but a foregone conclusion, the Bank’s more hawkish messaging raises the risk that it won’t cut rates as far and/or as quickly as we’re... 30th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Weak economy to prompt more policy support The economy seems destined for a period of weak growth amid the US tariff shock and much lower immigration. We forecast average annual GDP growth of 1.0% next year, with a further rise in the... 29th September 2025 · 13 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data suggest that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe remained resilient... 29th September 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Contrary to consensus expectations for growth to stabilise, we expect growth in... 29th September 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The hawkish communications from the Bank of Israel (BoI), as it left its policy rate on hold today, at 4.50%, suggest that expectations for interest rate cuts this year may be disappointed. While we... 29th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook AI boom to offset drag from immigration curbs We now expect tariffs to have only a very limited impact on both prices and activity, with the AI investment boom and the immigration crackdown proving to be the bigger economic drivers. With the AI... 29th September 2025 · 16 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB "in a good place", for now... We think that the ECB will change its view that interest rates are “in a good place” next year. Growth looks set to remain slow by international standards, and we suspect that it will be weaker than... 29th September 2025 · 28 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a mixed bag in September, but our regional measure of sentiment rose to a three-month high and points... 29th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Tokyo CPI is overstating the pace of disinflation The Tokyo CPI is overstating the pace at which inflation is moderating across Japan and we still believe that the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle at its October meeting. 29th September 2025 · 3 mins read
