US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The drop in the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to a four-month low of 80.0 in August, from 85.1, reversed only part of the sharp gains of the previous three months. Since most... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Productivity stagnation bodes ill for potential GDP growth After incorporating the revisions to the historical GDP figures, America's recent productivity performance looks even worse. The stagnation in productivity isn't going to have any major impact on Fed... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Feel-good factor buoys spending The recovery in consumer spending seems to be becoming more entrenched. While better weather has helped support sales, the underlying picture has also strengthened. Both retail sales and non-retail... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate hikes likely in Indonesia before year-end Bank Indonesia’s decision to leave interest rates on hold today does not mean the end of the tightening cycle. However, with the recent spike in inflation likely to prove temporary and the economy... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) July’s rise in sales volumes to a new record high is a further promising sign that a consumer resurgence is in progress. But the pattern of sales suggests the sunny weather played an important role in... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Aug.) & Labour market (Jun./Jul.) MPC member Martin Weale’s vote against the introduction of forward guidance will hardly help to reassure the markets about the strength of the MPC’s commitment to keep interest rates low. 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean central bank bides its time over rate move Yesterday’s central bank meeting in Chile revealed that policymakers are taking a cautious approach to changes in interest rates despite evidence of a slowing economy. We remain comfortable with our... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s latest data underline stagflation problem India’s latest data releases underline the challenges faced by the country and its new central bank governor. Today’s inflation data show that wholesale price inflation accelerated and consumer price... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) July’s retail sales data suggest that in response to the recent gains in employment, equity prices, house prices and the modest improvement in the availability of credit, households have started to... 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German minimum wage won’t rebalance the euro-zone Germany seems set to introduce a national minimum wage after September’s election. But it will probably do little to boost German consumer spending or to rebalance the euro-zone more generally. 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Chilean monetary policy? By all accounts this week’s interest rate decision in Chile is set to be a close call. We’re forecasting a 25bp cut to 4.75% but acknowledge that a slightly firmer tone to the recent economic data... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rates to stay on hold for three years (probably) The MPC took a bold step with its forward guidance on interest rates last week, although the various “knockouts” left some wondering whether it created more confusion than it cleared up. Indeed, the... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India’s new central bank governor to keep a tight rein Last week India appointed Raghuram Rajan, a former chief economist at the IMF, as the new governor of the Reserve Bank (RBI). The new governor takes over at a tricky time, with India’s economy... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Could the MPC have been bolder with its threshold? While the MPC has emphasised that interest rates will not automatically rise when unemployment reaches 7%, the Committee could arguably have been bolder in setting a lower threshold. 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia bides its time The Central Bank of Russia kept interest rates on hold today, but the accompanying statement provides some hints that policy may start to be eased over the coming months. Even so, dramatic cuts in... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru rates on hold, cuts still unlikely this year Last night’s central bank meeting in Peru has done little to alter our baseline view that interest rates are going nowhere this year. We expect the economy to weaken in the coming months, however... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read