UK Economics Update Carney’s words fall on deaf ears Bank of England Governor Mark Carney gave an unambiguously dovish maiden speech today but he still seems to be fighting a losing battle against the financial markets. It is looking as though the MPC... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Aug.) August’s improvement in the CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggests that the underlying recovery in the retail sector has strengthened further. But the fact that retailers have been unable to push... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What might the next twist in Turkish monetary policy be? The Turkish central bank appears ready to add to its policy toolkit in order to support the lira. No details have been provided yet, but our best guess is that, if new measures are introduced, they... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The continued weakness of the euro-zone monetary data in July suggests that the pick-up in the real economy rests on fragile foundations. 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle slowing down The fact that the Hungarian central bank cut interest rates by just 20bp today highlights that, even though the forint came through the recent EM sell-off relatively well, Hungary is still highly... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer spending continues its ascent Real household spending saw a further expansion in Q2, its seventh successive quarterly rise. But with earnings growth still subdued, the recovery’s foundations are hardly watertight. Nonetheless... 23rd August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) June's 1.2% m/m decline in retail sales volumes, which only partially reversed the 1.9% m/m gain in the month before, confirms that, over the second quarter as a whole, household consumption growth... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will unemployment fall sooner than the MPC thinks? There seems to be a general view that the MPC is underestimating how quickly unemployment will fall to the 7% threshold set under forward guidance, helping to explain why markets expect interest rates... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The tentative signs of acceleration in the June money supply figures turned out to be a false dawn. In July, most money supply measures expanded at the slowest pace in several months on a m/m basis... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed still on course to begin QE taper in September While it's far from a certainty, the minutes from the FOMC meeting in late July appear to support our view that the Fed will begin to slow its monthly asset purchases at the next meeting in mid... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the ECB’s forward guidance working? The limited rise in euro-zone market interest rates might suggest that the ECB’s forward guidance is working. But it would be premature to conclude that the central bank can continue to protect the... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai rates to stay unchanged in 2013 The Bank of Thailand kept its policy rate at 2.50% today. We continue to expect the central bank to keep rates low for the rest of 2013 before gradually tightening in 2014 as growth prospects improve. 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey continues to tighten The further hike in Turkish interest rates today merely underlines how vulnerable the economy is to the recent slowdown in capital inflows. Looking ahead, much will depend on how the current EM sell... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: how will policymakers respond to market rout? The sell-off in the Brazilian real over the past month has triggered a sharp upward revision in market expectations for interest rates over the next year. In this month’s Watch we explain why... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Residential investment growth set to slow We expect GDP growth to accelerate over the next few quarters as the Federal fiscal tightening begins to ease although, at the same time, it looks like the economic recovery will receive less support... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s industrial outperformance to continue Asia’s manufacturers have had a hard time since the global financial crisis, and are currentlystruggling through yet another weak patch. However, they have actually done much betterthan their peers in... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
