US Economics Weekly Further pick-up in GDP growth expected The 1.7% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP was pretty modest, even if it did come in above market expectations. Nevertheless, most other data releases last week indicated that GDP growth is... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Draghi muddies the waters President Draghi failed to convincingly improve the ECB’s transparency last week. He added some detail to last month’s pledge that interest rates would “remain at present or lower levels for an... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Catching up again? While the recovery across the pond may have softened, momentum in the UK economy seems to be building. The extent to which the UK can keep this up will be shaped by what we learn in this Wednesday’s... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Tampering with the sales tax hike carries risks China’s economy is set to slow further over coming years but we believe that the slump in growth many are now predicting will be avoided. 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Wonga won’t deliver the ‘wonga’ for a consumer recovery An expansion in ‘payday lending’ may be contributing to the recent growth in unsecured credit. But, over time, the cost of servicing a rising stock of high-interest debt will depress consumers’... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia‘s growth likely to stay stuck at around 6% Data released today showed that the pace of economic growth in Indonesia eased slightly in Q2. Higher inflation and tighter monetary policy will weigh on the economy over the next year, and we are... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf aid and struggling economy prompts Egypt to cut rates The surprise decision by the Central Bank of Egypt to cut interest rates today was probably triggered by two factors. The first is the influx of aid from the Gulf, which has eased strains in the... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC seemingly split on unconventional policy The Czech National Bank kept interest rates on hold at 0.05% today, but the post-meeting press conference provided the clearest signs yet that some policymakers are keen to adopt unconventional policy... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB does little to improve transparency A slow but steady removal of monetary stimulus in the US over the next few years is likely to have important implications for a wide variety of financial market instruments. It should buoy the dollar... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC pauses ahead of guidance decision Today’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting was always looking likely to be a non-event ahead of the announcement about forward guidance due next week. Our best guess is that the MPC will commit... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed likely to begin QE taper in September There is nothing in the latest FOMC statement released today to suggest that Fed officials have changed their minds about starting to taper the monthly asset purchases in September. 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Interest rate liberalisation hurts financial stocks While the Hang Seng index has rebounded significantly in July, equity prices in Shanghai have changed little, although the cash crunch has passed. Meanwhile, the renminbi has been kept stable. 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Monetary weakness casts doubts over recovery Survey-based euro-zone activity indicators like the composite PMI have continued to strengthen in recent months, raising the prospect that the currency union’s economy may finally emerge from its near... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: interest rate hikes delayed, not abandoned Rising inflation and a weakening currency means that interest rates in Ghana are still likely to rise again before the end of the year, despite the Central Bank’s decision to keep rates on hold today... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Rates to stay lower than the market expects Latin American central banks have taken divergent paths in 2013. Whereas Brazil started to hike interest rates in April, both Colombia and Mexico have trimmed their benchmark rates this year... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) & Labour Cash Earnings (Jun.) The first drop in the manufacturing PMI since late last year indicates that the recovery may now be entering a slower phase. Meanwhile wage growth remains insufficient to compensate for rising... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
