Asia Economics Update Faster growth reduces the need for rate cuts in Korea Data released today show that Korea’s economy picked up in Q2 on the back of stronger consumption and investment. Although low inflation means policymakers still have scope to cut interest rates, with... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand rates to remain low Despite worries that the housing market may be showing signs of overheating, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% today. We expect the cash rate to remain on... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed not quite ready to begin QE tapering There is only a remote chance that the Fed will make any major changes at the upcoming two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday (31st July), waiting instead until September to begin... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Thinking about the new "new normal" There are reasons to believe that the recent period of sluggish economic growth and near-zero interest rates are coming to a close. While the economy's potential growth rate is probably now only... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Employment gains mean that QE3 tapering still on track Even as estimates for second-quarter GDP growth have been revised lower in response to the disappointing incoming news on activity, the continued resilience of monthly employment gains has persuaded... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: naira weakness makes interest rate cuts unlikely The weakness of the naira over the past few months has made it increasingly unlikely that the Central Bank of Nigeria will cut interest rates this year. We now expect the policy rate to remain on hold... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s turn to “forward guidance” less bold than at first sight The National Bank of Hungary’s commitment to cut interest rates to a new record low of 3.0-3.5% over the coming months appears to be a bold step into the world of “forward guidance”. But the reality... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) The robust 1.9% m/m gain in May's retail sales volumes, together with earlier reports showing strong increases in manufacturing and wholesale trade, suggest that the economy grew by as much as 0.4% in... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What will a tapering of QE3 mean for EM interest rates? The sell-off in EM currencies that has followed the Fed’s signal that it may start to taper its asset purchases under QE3 has led central banks in India, Indonesia and now Turkey to hike interest... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fears of monetary tightening are premature Monetary conditions in the major advanced economies are likely to remain exceptionally loose even after the Fed ends its asset purchases under QE3. Credit growth in the US is slowing, but remains... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How far do Turkish rates need to rise? In a statement last week the governor of Turkey’s central bank, Erdem Basci, gave markets a strong steer that interest rates would be raised at tomorrow’s MPC meeting. But this is unlikely to result... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s export weakness to continue Exports from Emerging Asia remain lacklustre and continue to hold back the region’s growth. As this Weekly explains, a strong and sustained export recovery is unlikely anytime soon. 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Outlook improving for both retailers and industry The second half of the year is likely to be much better than the first for both retailers and manufacturers. Faster income growth should help households shrug off the lingering effects of January’s... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Currency sell-off unlikely to prompt a wave of rate hikes Lingering fears over the impact of a tapering of asset purchases by the US Fed have seen emerging market currencies continue to weaken over the past month – countries with current account deficits... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: weak rand to prevent interest rate cuts The ongoing weakness of the South African rand means that, despite the sluggish pace of economic growth, there is little room for the Reserve Bank to loosen monetary policy. We have taken out our... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to expect from the ECB’s Asset Quality Review The ECB’s planned review of banks’ balance sheets is key to resuscitating the euro-zone’s struggling banking sector. Forthcoming stress tests are likely to be more credible than previous rounds, but... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
