UK Economics Update Delayed income may be helping to drive recovery Given the headwinds that still face the economy, identifying what is driving the recent momentum in the economy is a puzzle. One factor which might be playing a role is the shifting of income by high... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation concerns ease in Brazil and Mexico July’s data will help to allay inflation concerns in Latin America’s two largest economies – Brazil and Mexico. Inflation fell back to within target range in both countries and looks set to remain... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Impact of forward guidance is greater than it seems The absence of a fall in market interest rates after yesterday’s forward guidance does not mean that the tactic has been ineffective, as evidence shows it had a significant impact before it was... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Arrears and Possessions (Q2) Low interest rates and lender forbearance are keeping mortgage possessions at levels which pose little threat to the outlook for house prices. But a meaningful drop in mortgage arrears is unlikely... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan may still have to ease further The Bank of Japan’s decision today to refrain from any additional easing on top of that already planned reflects the Board’s conviction that the measures taken so far are working. But with signs... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No change in Korean rates on the horizon The Bank of Korea’s (BoK) decision to keep interest rates on hold today was no great surprise given continued low inflation and recent signs of a pick-up in GDP growth. We expect to see rates on hold... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 GDP data likely to provide grounds for optimism The raft of GDP data due over the next few weeks is likely to show that growth in Emerging Europe picked up in the second quarter of this year. However, while the region as a whole seems to have... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada's sluggish export 'led' recovery Canada's export growth slowed to around 2.0% annualised in the second quarter, from just over 6.0% in the first quarter, which would seem to refute hopes of an export-led pick-up in economic growth... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will forward guidance provide a major boost to Gilts? The UK MPC’s "forward guidance" had little initial impact on Gilts on Wednesday but we still think it will help them to outperform US Treasuries over time. That being said, we do not expect the 10... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jul.) The strong expansion in July’s BRC measure of retail sales suggests that the consumer recovery continued apace at the start of the third quarter. But falling real earnings and lacklustre job growth... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Recovery entering a slower phase Japan’s economy likely continued to grow at a solid pace in the second quarter of the year, even though the recent wide divergence between various measures of consumer spending raises question marks... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia to keep policy loose as mining boom cools The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its cash rate by 25bp to 2.5% at its meeting today. It is likely to keep rates very low over the next two years to support the economy through a mining slowdown... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further cuts to come in Romania The surprise decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to accelerate the pace of policy easing reflects several factors, including a growing conviction that inflation will fall back by the end of... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Fragile recovery finally underway Signs of life in the housing market could aid the recovery in consumer spending. But continued falls in real pay are likely to keep any near-term consumer revival subdued. 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Waiting for the consumption tax hike The Bank of Japan will likely leave policy settings unchanged at its two-day August meeting, which concludes on Thursday. Governor Kuroda has indicated that a condition for further easing is the... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s consumers seeing mixed fortunes For all the hype about the rise of the Asian consumer, the recent performance of consumer spending in Asia has been disappointing. The weakness is largely explained by subdued spending in the region’s... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
