Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia to surface from recession, but recovery weak Having contracted in 2015, we expect the economy of Emerging Europe to return to growth in 2016. This will be driven in large part by an improvement in conditions in the region’s largest economy... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC getting closer to acting, but will tread carefully We got close to finally seeing some action from the Bank of England today. But in the event, the latest Financial Stability Report only prepped the ground for action from the Financial Policy... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds rates, loosening cycle now at an end The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its repo rate on hold at 6.75% today and, rather than just being on pause, we maintain our view that the loosening cycle is now at an end. 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q3 15) The Swiss GDP release revealed that growth stalled in Q3 and November’s manufacturing PMI points to worse to come. This raises the likelihood that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will increase its... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions to remain loose in 2016 The broad money supply is growing steadily and the growth of credit to nonfinancial companies has been recovering in recent months. With bond yields still very low and several central banks likely to... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s tightening cycle has further to run The smaller-than-expected 25bp hike in Colombia’s benchmark interest rate, to 5.50%, suggests that policymakers are starting to worry about the impact of tighter monetary policy on the economy. But... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic rebound may already be fading The evidence suggests that the economy stumbled at the end of the third quarter, casting doubt about its capacity to survive the worsening oil price collapse. With non-exports misfiring and business... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Fears of Asia slowdown overdone For all the talk of a sharp slowdown in Asia, regional growth remains remarkably stable. That said, there are still no signs of recovery, with exports again acting as a drag on growth in the third... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Further FPC action would not undermine recovery We could finally see some policy action from the Bank of England next week – but not in the form of a tightening in monetary policy. The Financial Policy Committee (FPC) may flex its muscle by using... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hard to “chill out” when capex is collapsing Even though the recent comment by the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor that everyone should “chill out” was clearly said in jest, it looks a little misplaced when we have since found out that... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Will the ECB meet expectations? The question is not whether the ECB’s Governing Council will loosen monetary policy at its meeting on December 3rd, but rather whether it will do so decisively enough to meet the very strong... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB to limit but not prevent franc appreciation The latest comments from Chairman Thomas Jordan suggest that the Swiss National Bank will act decisively to limit franc strength, including through further direct intervention in FX markets. But we... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Global easing cycle not over, despite looming Fed hikes After many delays we think the US Fed will – finally – raise rates in December. However, the global easing cycle is likely to continue next year,for several reasons. Underlying inflation in Japan and... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turning the corner The raft of preliminary GDP data published over the past month showed that the slump in regional growth bottomed out in the third quarter of this year. We estimate that, in aggregate, GDP in Emerging... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Stagnant wage demands another headwind to QQE The fact that Japan’s main trade union federation says that it will not demand stronger pay hikes in the upcoming wage negotiations than it did last time around provides another reason to think that... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB to limit but not prevent franc appreciation The latest comments from Chairman Thomas Jordan suggest that the Swiss National Bank will act decisively to limit franc strength, including through further direct intervention in FX markets. But we... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
