Europe Chart Pack Economic weakness spreads to Germany The latest survey indicators seem to have confirmed that the euro-zone’s feeble recovery has already passed its peak. September’s fall in the composite PMI, for example, left it consistent with a... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Investors face up to “new norm” for EM growth Investors have started to face up to the prospect that previous hopes of a significant rebound in EM growth are likely to be disappointed. But while the new normal for EM growth is going to be much... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SA PMI points to recovery, but manufacturing still sluggish The pick-up in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in September provides further evidence that the sector has come out of its recent slump. But even so, activity remains extremely weak and the prospects... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update RBI holds rates, but cuts could soon come onto the agenda The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left its policy rates on hold today but, given the weakness of recent activity data and the fact that inflation has fallen below the central bank’s near-term target, we... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Currency sell-off highlights divisions in rate outlook The sharp sell-off in the Russian ruble and Turkish lira this month couldn’t have come at a worse time for policymakers. Growth is sluggish in both countries, but high inflation and concerns about... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania cuts rates, probably the last in the easing cycle The National Bank of Romania’s rate cut earlier today probably marks the end of the recent easing cycle. After all, forthcoming data are likely to show inflation rising to within the Bank’s tolerance... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed ending QE3 but global policy still loose Although the US Fed is set to announce the end of its asset purchases in late October, global monetary conditions should remain highly accommodative. 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q2) The significant revisions to the UK’s national accounts have not changed the fundamental picture that the economy’s performance since the recession began in 2008 has been very weak by historical and... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa comes back into the firing line The South African rand has come under pressure this month as renewed attention on monetary tightening in the US has put the country’s large current account deficit back into the spotlight. The latest... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) The continued weakness of growth in broad money and bank lending provides more evidence that the low level of interest rates is not causing the economy to overheat. 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Interest rates unlikely to rise much further Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% on Friday and we do not expect rates to rise in the near term. There may be one more 25bp increase to 4.75% next year if domestic demand remains... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro's drop doesn't let ECB off the hook The continued depreciation of the euro exchange rate points to much-needed increases in export growth and imported inflation in the coming months. But this does not eliminate the risk of deflation and... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Inflation outlook has not changed While the recent softening in price pressures suggests that core inflation won’t hit the Fed’s 2% target until a bit later than we previously thought, we still think it will get there by mid-2015... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth concerns come to the fore The past month has seen renewed concerns about the growth outlook for much of Latin America. GDP in the region grew by just 1.1% y/y in Q2 and the available data so far point to a similar pace of... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch The era of global QE is not over Although the Fed is about to end its asset purchases, quantitative easing in the world as a whole still has a long way to go. The BoJ has already been buying assets on a larger scale than the Fed for... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Preparing the ground for QE The ECB now seems to be taking deflation risks more seriously, implementing surprise interest rate cuts in September and leaving the door wide open to quantitative easing. With the economy apparently... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
