Asia Economics Update Australian rates to stay on hold for now The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 2.5% today, as expected. For now, policy loosening looks to be off the agenda, but we suspect that a rate cut will be needed later in the year... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Three things to watch at the National People’s Congress The National People’s Congress meeting that starts in Beijing this week will give us a chance to review progress on economic reform since the Third Plenum and to gauge where the leadership’s immediate... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The latest PMI surveys confirm the continued slowdown in manufacturing. We think the outlook for the sector remains downbeat. Despite the recent surge in liquidity we suspect that policymakers will... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stars still aligned for more ECB support Despite last week's stronger than expected euro-zone inflation figures, the combination of still very weak price pressures, the strong euro and recent falls in liquidity in the banking sector still... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed needs to revise forward guidance soon There is a strong possibility that February's labour market figures, due out this Friday, will only make the Fed's job even harder. There is a chance that the unemployment rate could have hit the 6.5%... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of the recent drop in the ruble Events in Ukraine have been one factor behind the fall in the Russian ruble, but domestic problems have played a role too. The central bank (CBR) has already voiced its concern that exchange rate... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is QQE working? Almost one year after the launch of Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) by the Bank of Japan, the policy is working as well as could reasonably be expected. However, despite initial signs of... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt holds rates, but cuts could come back on to the agenda The Egyptian central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold for the second meeting in a row might suggest that the easing cycle of the past half a year has come to an end. However, given that... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Another small rate cut? While the euro-zone activity data has continued to show some improvement, the combination of very low inflation, the strong euro and falling liquidity in the banking sector has maintained pressure on... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Benign inflation outlook taking centre stage again The prospects for inflation are once again becoming the key factor driving monetary policy decisions by the Fed and the Bank of England, as both central banks have been forced to re-think their... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Given hopes that the ECB’s Asset Quality Review had temporarily depressed lending last year, January’s weak euro-zone monetary data will keep pressure on the ECB to loosen policy further. 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is a downturn looming for Turkish retail property? Reflecting the recent hike in official interest rates, credit growth and consumer spending in Turkey are vulnerable to a slowdown. In turn, and given that rents are high while yields are low, there is... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to maintain neutral stance The Bank of Canada's key policy rate has been on hold at 1.0% for more than three years now. With inflation still uncomfortably low and economic growth still overly-dependent on debt-fuelled housing... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Interest rates to stay lower than consensus expects Asian central banks have, for the most part, left interest rates on hold recently, with India the only major central bank in the region to adjust monetary policy over the past month. India raised... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will a shift in Fed policy send profits into a tailspin? A rise in borrowing costs triggered by less accommodative monetary policy is likely to have an adverse effect on the profits of increasingly-indebted US companies. But we doubt margins will collapse. 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would Hong Kong benefit from higher interest rates? Concerns are mounting that higher interest rates in the US could cause Hong Kong’s economy to slow sharply. With growth picking up and with little slack in the labour market, tighter monetary policy... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
