UK Markets Outlook Diverging rate paths to favour gilts Since the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is probably only a few months away from starting to raise interest rates, gilt yields are likely to depart from their three decade long downward trend soon... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank keeps rates on hold, policy to remain tight The Turkish central bank kept its key interest rates unchanged today, but there are signs that policymakers have started to tighten monetary conditions via the interest rate “corridor” to counter the... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation will bounce back Despite the weaker core inflation readings over the past couple of months, we still expect core inflation to climb gradually, rising above the Fed's 2% target in the first half of next year... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) September’s Ifo survey brought further worrying signs that the recovery in the German economy is grinding to a halt and underlined the need for both monetary and fiscal policy to provide further... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack What is behind the recent currency weakness? Sizeable falls in a number of Asian currencies against the US dollar over the past month have rekindled unwelcome memories of last summer’s “Taper Tantrum”. As was the case during last year’s sell-off... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary to keep rates at record low well into next year The National Bank of Hungary’s post-meeting press release reinforced the message that the MPC sees little pressure to raise interest rates. Indeed, with inflation likely to remain low, and economic... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombia: towards a period of softer growth Colombia’s economy has been a rare bright spot in Latin America so far this year but, while we don’t expect growth to collapse, we do expect it to slow over 2015-16. This in turn is likely to mean... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Next SARB Governor faces an uphill task Speculation is mounting that one of the current Deputy Governors will take over from Gill Marcus as Governor of the South African Reserve Bank. But the bigger picture is that, whoever is appointed... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lankan rates outlook dependent on credit growth dynamics Following last week's strong GDP figures, the central bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) kept its deposit and lending rates on hold at 6.5% and 8.0%, respectively, today. But with credit growth staying sluggish... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Even as the Fed has reduced the pace of its monthly asset purchases, the annual rate of broad money growth has remained largely stable at close to 6%. 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Low uptake dashes ECB’s hopes for TLTROs The low uptake at the first of the ECB’s Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs) last week supported our view that the policy is unlikely to be successful at boosting bank lending. It... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian rates likely to remain unchanged until after election The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept interest rates on hold today and we do not expect any major shifts in the stance of monetary policy in the near term. The risks to inflation are skewed to the... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Post-referendum relief rally falls flat The absence of a major relief rally following Scotland’s rejection of independence confirms that the markets only ever placed a very small probability on a ‘Yes’ vote. Although interest rate... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Credit growth in Emerging Asia still unsustainable We have been arguing for some time that Emerging Asia’s credit binge is unsustainable, and that credit growth will need to slow for a crisis to be avoided. While there are encouraging signs that... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Return to normalcy? The recent strength evident in much of the incoming survey and activity data suggeststhat we were right to believe GDP growth would accelerate once credit conditions eased and thefiscal drag faded. We... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack More targeted support for small firms Although liquidity operations by the PBOC have received the most attention this week, further measures to support small firms that were announced by the State Council on Wednesday are arguably more... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
