Latin America Economics Update Will market turmoil trigger interest rate hikes? The recent market turmoil increases the likelihood of another 50bp interest rate hike in Brazil, but policymakers elsewhere in the region are unlikely to tighten monetary policy unless the currency... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand rate hike is imminent The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% today, but it made clear in its statement that it will be raising rates soon. As long as data releases continue to show... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed continues gradual QE taper Despite last minute suggestions from some commentators that the emerging markets wobble could prompt a delay, the Fed opted to continue the gradual winding down of its asset purchases today, reducing... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: surprise rate hike fails to shore up the rand The South African Reserve Bank became the latest EM central bank to respond to the turmoil in currency markets by hiking interest rates today. However, if the decision to tighten was aimed at shoring... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Turkey & India likely to be the exception rather than the rule The decisions by Turkey and India yesterday to raise interest rates have inevitably led to speculation that market turbulence will force policymakers in other parts of the emerging world to follow... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.13) Euro-zone bank lending remained very weak in December, suggesting that the banking sector is still a significant drag on the region’s recovery. 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia tightening cycle to start in first half of 2014 Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) unsurprisingly kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% at its meeting today. But with the economy gradually gaining traction, we think the next move in rates is likely to... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Turkey edges back to orthodoxy The operation of Turkey’s interest rate corridor means that the true extent of monetary tightening announced at last night’s emergency MPC meeting is a little less than the aggressive hike in the... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB loan buying plan won't dampen deflation risks Hints from Mario Draghi that the European Central Bank (ECB) may consider purchasing bank loans do not reduce the growing risks of deflation in the euro-zone. 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Can EM equities shrug off rising Treasury yields? One reason for the current nervousness in emerging markets (EMs) is of course the Fed's decision to begin tapering its asset purchases. However, suggestions that EM equities will inevitably struggle... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Dual concerns over inflation and rupee behind India rate hike The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) surprised the market with a rate hike today, signalling its commitment to bringing down inflation, while perhaps also hoping to protect the rupee amid the ongoing... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Farewell forward guidance? The combination of November’s further sharp fall in unemployment and hints from the Governor of the Bank of England suggest that the Monetary Policy Committee’s policy of formal, state-contingent... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update 8 reasons why wage growth is poised to take off The current rates of wage and price inflation may be unusually low, but we are becoming increasingly concerned that the dwindling slack in the labour market will trigger a rise in wage inflation this... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine's central bank walking on a tightrope The Ukrainian National Bank’s decision to loosen its grip on the hryvnia will bring benefits in terms of restoring external competitiveness. But there are near-term risks too, including higher... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Unemployment still well above an "equilibrium" rate Although the unemployment rate is falling rapidly, there is plenty of evidence that it is still well above a level that would generate inflation and require official interest rates to rise soon. 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks loosen policy in spite of Fed tapering Despite concerns that the US Fed’s tapering of its asset purchases may force EM policymakers to hike interest rates, more EM central banks have loosened monetary policy over the past six months than... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
