Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) February’s euro-zone monetary data add to the evidence from activity surveys that economic growth in the euro-zone will pick up in the coming months. But troubles in the Greek banking sector remain a... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigerian politics take centre stage All eyes are focused on Nigeria’s election on 28th March, which will almost certainly spark a brief period of political violence when (as seems likely) the losing candidate refuses to accept the... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Investment outlook weakens While some of the latest data have suggested that economic activity in Australia has accelerated since the turn of the year, the bigger picture is that the economy is still struggling to cope with the... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe shaping up well at the start of 2015 Despite concerns about deflation, a recession in Russia and sluggishness in the euro-zone, the latest data out of Central Europe have been surprisingly robust. Industrial production growth has... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: a few more small rate cuts on the cards Having resumed its easing cycle earlier today, the Hungarian MPC made it clear that a few more small rate cuts are likely over the coming months. For now, we have pencilled in 30bp of rate cuts, which... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Exports take a turn for the worse Emerging Asia’s exports have taken a turn for the worse in recent months. Leaving out China, the region’s merchandise exports, measured in US dollar terms, contracted at the sharpest annual rate in... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish easing cycle at an end, policy to stay extremely loose The Polish MPC was uncharacteristically forthright in its statement that today’s 50bp cut in the policyinterest rate, to 1.5%, marked the end of the easing cycle. But it’s clear that weak price... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan is unlikely to join Asia's rate-cutting cycle Despite slowing growth, a bout of deflation and a housing market that has recently taken a turn for the worse, Taiwan is unlikely to join the Asian rate-cutting cycle at its upcoming meeting. 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s central bank to tread carefully Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% on Friday and, although the latest sell-off in the peso and above-target inflation has weakened the case for rate cuts in the near-term, we... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy likely to struggle for longer than others expect After slowing in the final quarter of last year, the economy appears to have lost considerably more momentum this quarter, with GDP growth likely to be no better than 1.0% annualised, below the... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) While February's headline inflation rate remained at 1.0%, the core inflation rate eased to 2.1%, from 2.2%. These figures by themselves won't sway the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Dovish Fed cheers commodity markets Hints that the Fed will keep US interest rates low by past standards even when it does start to return them towards more normal levels took the steam out of the rally in the dollar and supported... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Does the Fed most fear a potential bond market rout? The downward revisions to the FOMC's interest rate projections last week suggest that Fed officials are caught in two minds between beginning to hike rates in June or September. We still think that a... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Fed policy unlikely to have major impact on rupee The Indian rupee has taken Wednesday’s FOMC meeting in its stride, with the currency dropping only fractionally against the US dollar since then. Looking ahead, the economy is in much better shape to... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Shunto pay hikes still too small to lift inflation to 2% The early results from this year’s spring wage negotiations confirm that the tight labour market has boosted wage pressure. However, this year’s overall increase in labour income will likely still... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bank of Chile likely to bide its time Interest rates in Chile were left unchanged at 3% last night but the accompanying statement revealed a subtle shift in tone from the central bank, which now seems to think that inflation is likely to... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
