Global Inflation Watch Inflation to bounce back, but remain low Many advanced economies will experience several months of negative headline inflation this year as a result of the plunge in oil prices, but few are at risk of a prolonged or damaging bout of... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies unlikely to go into freefall All of Latin America’s currencies will probably weaken further against the dollar in the near-term as we approach a first interest rate hike by the Fed. But with most currencies no longer appearing to... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ to shift from neutral to reverse later this year The Reserve Bank of Australia can’t have its cake and eat it. The only way to ensure that the Australian dollar weakens, which would support the real economy, is to reduce interest rates further, but... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) Credit growth strengthened last month on the back of a more accommodative policy stance. That said, we still think that concerns over the build-up of credit risks mean policymakers will stop short of... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea's rate cut likely marks end of cutting cycle The Bank of Korea (BoK) reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.75% today, adding to a growing list of central banks that have cut rates this year. But Korea's high household debt levels... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A selection of our key calls This note summarises our key calls on major economies and markets, emphasising where we differ from the consensus. In particular, we forecast US interest rates to rise sooner and further than... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How low will the euro go? Rising expectations for US interest rates and an escalation of the Greek crisis could push the euro down to parity against the US dollar and beyond. But we expect it to stage a partial recovery in... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed close to embarking on return to normality With the labour market still evidently on fire in February, we expect the FOMC statement next Wednesday to omit the language that the Fed can be "patient" in beginning to normalise monetary policy... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb.) Sweden’s headline inflation rate turned positive in February for the first time in eight months. But deflationary pressures have not disappeared altogether and we continue to think that the Riksbank... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand's rate cut likely to be a one-off The Bank of Thailand (BoT) joined the global shift toward monetary loosening today, cutting its policy rate by 25bp to 1.75%. Looking ahead, we think the BoT will keep rates on hold in the coming... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb. 15) Sweden’s headline inflation rate turned positive in February for the first time in eight months. But deflationary pressures have not disappeared altogether and we continue to think that the Riksbank... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Real rates to stay higher in the euro-zone than in US & Japan The ECB started its quantitative easing programme this week and the US Fed is likely to begin tightening policy in June. Nonetheless, we expect real interest rates to remain higher in the euro-zone... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will QE hit the buffers before the job is done? Concerns that the ECB will struggle to find enough willing sellers of assets to implement its quantitative easing programme may be wide of the mark. But limits set by the Bank itself imply little... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Turkish central bank independence matters The Turkish government’s attacks on the central bank (CBRT) have become increasingly aggressive over the past month, raising fears about the independence of monetary policy and triggering a sharp sell... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What should we look at if we don’t trust the GDP data? The recent revisions to historic GDP data have been the source of much confusion, not least within the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). In this Update, we look at four indicators that the RBI appears to... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Start of ECB QE won’t herald strong recovery As the ECB’s quantitative easing programme starts today, it already seems to be having a more positive impact than we had envisaged. But here we explain why we maintain our view that the policy will... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
