Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: rates hiked as inflation jumps, currency pressures mount Today’s 100bp rate hike in Egyptian interest rates was larger than even our own above-consensus forecast and, with inflation likely to rise further in the coming months and the central bank willing to... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) Headline CPI inflation remained well below the Fed’s target in May, but base effects will push it well above 2% by early next year. Both headline and core consumer prices increased by a solid 0.2% m/m... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Referendum effects muddy picture for MPC The MPC today repeated its warnings about the potential adverse effects on the economy of a Brexit , but reiterated that the policy implications of a Brexit would not be clear-cut. Meanwhile, if the... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Economic giants now contracting Both the Nigerian and South African economies contracted in Q1, and the latest activity figures suggest that things remained very grim going into Q2. In Nigeria, disruptions to oil output in Q2 have... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB holds back ammunition for possible Brexit The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left interest rates on hold as expected today, but it will continue to intervene in FX markets if needed, as is likely in the run-up to the UK referendum. An actual... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan to provide more easing next month The Bank of Japan still sees downside risks to its inflation forecasts, and we believe that policymakers will respond by stepping up the pace of easing next month. 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May) May’s data suggest that the labour market is not too strong to prevent the Reserve Bank of Australia from cutting interest rates to 1.5% at its August meeting and not too weak to prompt it to become... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB holds back ammunition for possible Brexit The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left interest rates on hold as expected today, but it will continue to intervene in FX markets if needed, as is likely in the run-up to the UK referendum. An actual... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed moves the goal posts yet again Despite leaving its economic projections largely unchanged today (GDP growth expectations were revised down slightly, inflation forecasts were revised up slightly) the FOMC nevertheless cut its... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First reflections on Temer’s first month Michel Temer’s first month as interim president of Brazil has been a mix of the good (eye-catching economic reforms) and the bad (three members of government, including the transparency minister, have... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q1) GDP figures published today showed growth in Sri Lanka picked up in the first quarter of 2016. However, we are wary of reading too much into the data, given the serious doubts that remain over the... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Wealth effect weighs on Hong Kong consumption Private consumption growth in Hong Kong is at the weakest since 2009, even though the labour market is tight and real wages are growing strongly. The downturn in the city’s housing market and a slump... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) After accelerating since mid-2015, credit growth now appears to be stabilising. It may start to slow before long given that policymakers have in recent months refrained from further monetary easing. 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Pressures on Saudi riyal should start to ease Speculation has mounted in recent weeks that Saudi Arabia will devalue the riyal. For our part, we have long argued that policymakers would be loath to abandon the dollar peg. And, as we explain in... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (May) Sweden’s inflation rate fell by more than expected in May. With underlying price pressures still largely absent, the Riksbank may well need to take further policy action. 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) The sharp rise in wholesale price inflation in May reinforces our view that there is little scope for further monetary loosening. 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
