Emerging Markets Economics Update The end of QE and what it means for emerging markets Most of the emerging world should take the end of QE3 in its stride. The link between QE and capital flows to EMs has often been exaggerated. And while some EMs look vulnerable as US rates move up, it... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed halts QE3 and takes slightly more hawkish stance As expected, the Fed today announced an end to its third round of large-scale asset purchases (aka QE3). Slightly less expected, however, is that despite the recent market volatility, the statement... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions set to remain loose The likely end of the Fed’s asset purchases under QE3 does little to change the bigger picture that global monetary conditions remain very loose. 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The latest monetary indicators provided further evidence to suggest that there is no pressing need for the Monetary Policy Committee to start to raise interest rates yet. 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack No sign of improvement Economic growth in Emerging Asia is showing no sign of improvement. Our GDP tracker is pointing to growth of around 4.5% in the third quarter, which is roughly unchanged from the previous quarter and... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC shrugs off weak inflation and activity data The press release accompanying today’s decision by the National Bank of Hungary to keep interest rates on hold was surprisingly upbeat. It largely shrugged off the drop in inflation in September... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Support from the Fed’s QE is not about to disappear The widely anticipated completion of the Fed’s purchases under QE3 need not mark the end of the policy’s support for global asset prices. As it happens, QE3 was not much of a boon to emerging markets... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis points to larger-than-expected rate hikes The continued slide in the ruble over the past few weeks has raised the prospect that Russia is in the grip of a self-fulfilling currency crisis in which the mere anticipation of currency weakness... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank cuts rates to zero but deflation threat persists Sweden’s central bank today stepped up its fight against deflation, cutting its main policy rate to a record low of 0% and pushing back the date at which it first expects to raise rates. We think that... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank cuts rates to zero but deflation threat persists Sweden’s central bank today stepped up its fight against deflation, cutting its main policy rate to a record low of 0% and pushing back the date at which it first expects to raise rates. We think that... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Lower oil price adds to risks Alongside the potential for a sharp correction in the domestic housing market, the recent slump in crude oil prices represents a second risk to the Canadian economic outlook. We expect GDP growth to... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) September’s euro-zone monetary data showed further signs of improvement but with lending growth still negative and, given the need for some of the weakest banks to raise further capital, the sector is... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Dilma scrapes home, quashing hopes of policy shift in Brazil Dilma Rousseff's narrow victory in yesterday’s presidential run-off in Brazil has dented hopes that the elections might deliver much-need economic policy reforms. Growth in Ms. Rousseff’s first term... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Lower energy prices another reason to ease more Just a few months ago, a sizeable number of analysts were expecting the Bank of Japan to provide more stimulus at the upcoming meeting, but only a few are still holding on to that view. We expect that... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed to complete QE taper with GDP growth still strong Recent financial market volatility won’t prevent the Fed from announcing an end to its asset purchases this week, at the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The bottom line is that... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed weakness in Germany hits Central Europe The past month has brought further evidence of weaker growth in Central Europe. Admittedly, August’s particularly disappointing data appear to have been distorted by variations in summer holidays. And... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
