US Economics Update Fed running out of reasons not to hike rates With the unemployment rate now within a whisker of most estimates of the natural rate and more comprehensive measures of wage growth showing a clear acceleration, we believe that the markets are too... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is QE already priced in? Markets have probably at least partially priced in the prospect of QE in the euro-zone, suggesting that the ECB will have to unveil a bold programme to prompt a further significant market reaction. 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Crisis in Russia to weigh on regional growth Growth across Emerging Europe has slowed in recent months and we expect it to remain soft over the coming quarters. The economies of Central Europe will continue to be held back by weakness in Germany... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Nov.) November’s Bank of England Inflation Report gave another strong indication that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expects to keep interest rates on hold for a number of months yet and then increase... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q3 GDP data to show widespread weakness in the region The raft of preliminary Q3 GDP data due to be published this month is likely to be disappointing, showing a slowdown in growth across the region. While domestic demand seems to have held up reasonably... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish CPI (Oct. 14) The rise in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in October will do little to dispel fears that the country is succumbing to a damaging bout of deflation and will maintain pressure on the Riksbank to... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will negative yields render ECB QE useless? Any optimism surrounding the ECB’s progress towards QE has been dulled by concerns that the already low level of yields on many assets will make the policy ineffective. But there is still scope for QE... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Falling commodity prices to keep inflation subdued The recent sharp falls in local food and global oil prices are likely to have kept both consumer and wholesale price inflation subdued in October. This would strengthen our view that the RBI is likely... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What will trigger ECB QE and when? The ECB suggested last week that preparations are finally underway to launch full-blown quantitative easing. It seems that action will be triggered by either of two factors: evidence that existing... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank to be forced into further rate hikes The continued slide in the ruble is likely to force the Central Bank of Russia into making a one-off intervention in the currency market, permitted under its new exchange rate policy, rather more... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB’s Draghi signals QE is imminent Today’s statement from Mr Draghi that ECB staff are preparing further monetary policy measures provided the firmest support yet for our long-held view that the Bank will implement full-blown... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Naira’s decline increases chance of a rate hike The sharp fall in the Nigerian naira today probably reflects reduced intervention by the central bank, and increases the probability that policymakers will raise interest rates later this month. We... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Case for rock-bottom rates remains strong for now With inflation easing and uncertainty about the economic outlook growing, the MPC’s decision to keep Bank Rate at 0.5% looks set to be repeated for a few more months. And while the MPC will not wait... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Growth is slowing (but not collapsing) Global growth appears to have softened at the beginning of the fourth quarter. The stagnation in the euro-zone has continued and Japan has still not recovered from the effects of April’s consumption... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s policy rate to stay on hold until mid-2015 Against a backdrop of softer domestic growth and weakening exports, the Malaysian central bank (BNM) unsurprisingly kept its policy rate on hold at 3.25% today. As the accompanying statement took on a... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Significant slowdown still looks unlikely Fears that the UK’s economic recovery is rapidly losing steam appear largely overblown. Admittedly, the Markit/CIPS Composite PMI, which weights together the headline indices for the manufacturing... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
