US Economics Weekly Lower energy prices will delay rebound in inflation Our key theme for this year, that the two big deflationary shocks of 2015 - the slump in energy prices and the surge in the dollar - will fade, leaving rising domestic price pressures to generate a... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions still supportive Broad money and private sector credit have continued expanding steadily in recent months. In advanced economies as a whole, credit has been growing rapidly while in emerging economies it has slowed... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru hikes & Chile holds, gradual tightening ahead The decision by Peru’s central bank to hike interest rates for a second consecutive month underlines its concerns about above-target inflation and we have brought forward our forecast for 50bp of... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) Today’s data suggest that lending to the real economy remained strong at the end of last year, which should help support economic activity in the coming months. The loose monetary stance currently... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sustained franc strength will hit Swiss economy hard The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) shock decision to abandon its ceiling for the franc reflected its judgement that the policy was just not sustainable. Unless it can reverse the franc’s appreciation... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB on hold for now, but doves will win in the end After disappointing markets in December, we expect the ECB to indicate at its forthcoming meeting that the door is still open to bolder policy support. The Bank is unlikely to alter policy for now... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK not particularly impacted by global market turmoil The renewed concerns about growth in China, which led to a rout in Chinese equities at the start of 2016, hit financial markets worldwide, including the UK. That said, the UK has been relatively... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s Belka cautions against rate cuts Polish National Bank Governor Marek Belka used this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference to warn incoming MPC members that there was little to warrant looser monetary policy, but with inflation... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower inflation outlook to keep the MPC on hold for a while The MPC’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 0.5% today, for the 82nd month in a row, was unsurprising given the recent fall-back in the oil price and renewed market concerns about the health... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia will only cut rates gradually Bank Indonesia’s decision to cut interest rates today should provide a long-overdue boost to the struggling economy. But the central bank will take a cautious approach from here. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rate hike still likely, despite weak output data South African mining output did not contract as sharply as was predicted in November, but the weakness of the economy will still put pressure on the SARB to slow its hiking cycle. Even so, with the... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Dec.) The very low rate of inflation in Sweden in December underlines the absence of price pressures and will encourage the Riksbank to follow through on last week’s announcement that it was prepared to... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate cut in Bangladesh likely to be a one-off Bangladesh Bank has today cut its policy rates for the first time since 2013 to give the economy a further lift. Although the central bank has become more confident of meeting its inflation target... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea to hold rates in 2016 Against a backdrop of global financial market volatility and rising household debt, the Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50% today. We do not expect any changes... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Dec. 15) The very low rate of inflation in Sweden in December underlines the absence of price pressures and will encourage the Riksbank to follow through on last week’s announcement that it was prepared to... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook China holds the key to regional recovery Turmoil in China’s financial markets has fuelled concerns that its real economy is also on the brink of a crisis, but we expect continued policy support to drive a recovery over the coming months... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
