Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian rates on hold amid high inflation The Central Bank of Egypt left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 9.25% today and, with growth picking up and inflation still high, it looks unlikely that July’s rate hike will be reversed any... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2014 Preview George Osborne will present his fifth Autumn Statement on 3rd December under mounting pressure from his fiscal and opinion poll deficits. Despite this, he seems unlikely to panic and abandon his tough... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) October’s euro-zone monetary data highlighted the sluggish nature of the recovery in the region’s banking sector and will help to maintain the pressure on the ECB to provide further stimulus. 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Higher core inflation doesn't change rate outlook The rise in core inflation further above target doesn't change the interest rate outlook, since that increase mainly reflects the temporary effects of a weaker currency, which the Bank believes will... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What will ECB QE do to core euro-zone bond yields? An ECB quantitative easing (QE) programme will probably not be decisive enough to prompt a rise in inflation expectations like that which lifted US Treasury yields during the Fed’s bouts of QE... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where could the next EM rate surprise come? Policymakers in several EMs – notably China – have surprised the markets with unexpected rate decisions over the past month or so. In this Update we identify the EM central banks that are most likely... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Upside risk of a very strong gain in non-farm payrolls Our econometric model points to a 300,000 gain in payrolls in November although, hedging our bets, we have trimmed our actual forecast to 250,000. Nevertheless, any gain above 200,000 should be enough... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Will the rupee prevent policy loosening? Markets seem certain that the RBI will keep interest rates on hold next week, but we are not so sure. Inflation has fallen much further than most had expected, GDP growth is still weak by past... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Retail spending picks up, but recovery uneven There has been a gradual recovery in retail spending in Emerging Asia during 2014. The top performing countries are Indonesia and Malaysia, where retail sales are expanding at a double digit pace. In... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What impact will the rate cut have, and what happens next? We foresee two more cuts in China's benchmark lending rates by the middle of next year but not the sizeable acceleration in credit that would be needed for a substantial pick-up in GDP growth... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Further monetary tightening probably needed in Nigeria The Central Bank of Nigeria raised interest rates and devalued the naira in order to reduce the pressure on the currency and stem the depletion of its foreign exchange reserves. But we suspect that... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Monetary policy in Hungary to stay loose The National Bank of Hungary left interest rates unchanged today and, in spite of negative inflation, the MPC appears to be in no mood to resume policy easing. But equally, there will be little... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q3 Revised) Singapore's economy began to show signs of life in the third quarter, with manufacturing output picking up more than previously thought. The gradual recovery in the global economy and healthy real... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM policymakers unlikely to follow China’s lead There is little reason to think that the decision by the People’s Bank of China to lower interest rates will trigger a spate of copycat responses from other EM central banks. China’s capital account... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM monetary policy takes divergent paths Monetary policy is heading in differing directions across the emerging world. Several economies in Central and Eastern Europe, Asia (notably China) and Latin America have lowered interest rates in... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Plenty of upside for gold despite likely Fed tightening Gold remains out of favour with Western investors and commentators focused on the prospect of tighter US monetary policy and further dollar strength. But we see scope for a decent recovery in the... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
