Asia Chart Pack What to make of Korea’s stimulus package? The Korean government today announced plans for a fiscal stimulus package worth about 20trn won (equivalent to 1.3% of GDP) in response to growing headwinds facing the economy. The decision follows... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update “Brexit” heralds even looser global monetary conditions The latest monetary data are consistent with a gradual slowdown in advanced economies, but do not point to a collapse in growth. Looking ahead, global central banks are likely to respond to the UK... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Economy approaching full employment Despite the slowdown in the first quarter, the incoming monthly data point to a big rebound in second-quarter GDP growth and we still expect growth for 2016 as a whole to be 2.0%. The UK’s vote to... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s new government set to be a fragile one Despite unexpected gains for the right in Spain, an anti-austerity left-wing coalition may now be more likely than opinion polls had suggested. Either way, the new government will be a very fragile... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) May’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that economic growth remains fairly slow. While the ECB has since introduced new stimulus measures, including its latest TLTROs, we doubt that they will boost... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Who will succeed Governor Rajan at the RBI? Following the announcement earlier this month from Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan that he will be stepping down at the end of his first term in September, speculation has been... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Wage growth shows “tentative” signs of a pick-up The growth rate of average hourly earnings has accelerated to 2.5%, from a norm of nearer 2.0% in recent years, and other measures like the Atlanta Fed’s tracker suggest that median wage growth is... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Brexit unlikely to have a meaningful impact on US economy The UK vote to leave the European Union (EU) has inevitably triggered an immediate negative reaction in global financial markets, but we do not anticipate a significant sustained tightening in US... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka steady for now but raising rates soon With its currency flat today amid broader EM volatility and its governor on the way out, the central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) has decided to keep policy rates unchanged. But credit growth is soaring... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What will the policymakers do? Following the vote for a Brexit, a considerable amount of uncertainty hangs over the UK, which is likely to weigh on activity in the short term. However, we think that the near-term hit to the economy... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB needs to act decisively The UK’s surprise vote to leave the European Union has put more pressure on the European Central Bank to provide additional policy support. We now expect an acceleration in the pace of the ECB’s asset... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen unlikely to hold on to post-Brexit-vote strength The UK’s vote to leave the EU has pushed the yen to levels last seen when Quantitative and Qualitative Easing was first launched, while the Nikkei has slumped by 8%. These moves increase the chances... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB waiver offers limited relief for Greece The ECB’s decision to reinstate a waiver allowing Greek banks to borrow from it at low interest rates will help to ease pressure on the banking sector. But it is very unlikely to generate a lending... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Jun.) Mexico’s fairly soft mid-month inflation reading for June, of 2.6% y/y, taken together with the recent rebound in the peso, has eased some of the pressure on the MPC to tighten monetary policy next... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: interest rates to remain low for some time yet With the economy growing strongly but inflationary pressures under control, today’s decision by the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 3.0% came as no... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to cut interest rates in September The Norges Bank left its key policy rate unchanged today, but with the economy weak and inflation set to fall, we think that further loosening is on the way. 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
