Japan Data Response GDP (Q3 Preliminary) The 0.5% q/q rise in GDP last quarter implies that the output gap was the smallest since 2014’s sales tax hike. Combined with the recent weakening of the yen, today’s figures therefore reduce the... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the post-Trump sell-off The sell-off in EM markets following Donald Trump’s victory appears to have been driven by a general rise in investor risk aversion, rather than specific concerns over a shift towards greater trade... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Five questions (and answers) about Trump and Asia Donald Trump’s surprise election victory has created a great deal of uncertainty for the region. In this Weekly, we answer five key questions. 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Rising inflation to trigger rate hikes next year Despite the drop in the sol in recent days and the rising inflation rate, Peru’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 4.25% once again. Nonetheless, we expect hikes to resume next year and the... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will the RBNZ intervene to weaken the NZ dollar? While Trump’s election win is still causing some uncertainty in financial markets, attention in New Zealand has swiftly moved to the kiwi dollar following comments by Governor Wheeler that the RBNZ... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean rates to stay unchanged through 2017 The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today and, while subdued growth and low inflation mean the BoK will keep monetary policy loose for the foreseeable future, a high level... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines to keep interest rates unchanged for some time yet The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) surprised nobody with its decision to leave its main policy rate on hold earlier today at 3.0%. Looking ahead, with inflation set to remain low and growth... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian and Danish Consumer Prices (Oct.) In October, the Norges Bank’s favoured measure of inflation was unchanged at a joint 14-month low. We think that it will fall sharply next year, prompting the Bank to cut its key policy rate from 0.5%... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ thinks it has done enough The Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed that business carries on as usual with Trump as US President as today it met its previous pledge to cut interest rates from 2.00% to 1.75%. What’s more... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Central Bank of Iceland set to cut rates We think that the sharp appreciation of the króna over recent months will prompt the Central Bank of Iceland to cut its inflation forecasts next week. As a result, although the Bank has previously... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish monetary policy to stay loose Polish National Bank governor, Adam Glapinski, used this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference to indicate that interest rates are most likely to remain unchanged over the course of next year. But... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico keeps its powder dry, but rate hikes still likely The rebound in the peso over the last few hours appears to have dissuaded Mexico’s central bank from raising interest rates at a press conference this morning. However, with the situation in markets... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank minutes support expectations of QE extension Today’s minutes showed broad support for an extension of the Riksbank’s government bond purchase programme. Combined with the uncertainty created by Donald Trump’s victory in the US, an extension of... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Oct.) The sharp fall in Brazilian inflation in October is likely to be followed up by further declines over the coming months. Accordingly, barring a sustained drop in the real – the currency is down by 2.5... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Trump win could widen policy divergence next year We suspect that the Nordic and Swiss economies will see limited effects from Mr Trump’s victory. Butit makes monetary policy divergence between Switzerland and Sweden next year slightly more likely. 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What does Trump’s victory mean for policymakers in Asia? The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today and is likely to be in little hurry to adjust monetary policy over the coming year. Elsewhere in the region, the increase in... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
