Asia Economics Weekly Who will follow the Bank of Korea? The central banks in Asia most likely to follow the Bank of Korea over the coming year in raising interest rates are those of Malaysia, India and Pakistan. However, with the exception of Pakistan, the... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Are low policy rates contractionary? Governor Kuroda has recently discussed the idea that extremely low interest rates could undermine bank profits and capital and, ultimately, lending. Evidence for this idea is lacking in Japan, where... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What does the fall in spare capacity mean for wages? While the notable strengthening in the Australian labour market this year has led to some reduction in the high levels of existing spare capacity, wage growth has remained around record lows. And the... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Government won’t get its wish Rumours that members of the government are attempting to pressure the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to loosen monetary policy are nothing new, although continued efforts to undermine the central bank’s... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong payrolls to keep pressure on Fed We forecast a 200,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November, with the unemployment rate holding steady at a 17-year low of 4.1%. The latter will concern those Fed officials worried that diminishing... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s policy tightening will proceed gradually The Bank of Korea (BoK) raised its policy rate for the first time since 2011 today. Looking ahead, the tone of the governor’s accompanying press conference suggests aggressive monetary policy... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank already starting to regret rate hikes The Bank of Canada will leave interest rates at 1.00% at its policy rate meeting next week and, by putting emphasis on the uncertainties clouding the outlook, will signal that it isn’t contemplating... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The monetary aggregates reveal a divergence, with M2 growth slowing to a six-year low of 5.0% in October, while growth in our M3 measure accelerated to a two-and-a-half-year high of 6.1%. As short... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Effect of easing in LVR restrictions only modest Today’s announcement by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) that it intends to ease existing loan-to-value (LVR) restrictions from the start of next year should provide a modest boost to housing... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Lowe signalling that rates unlikely to rise next year Recent comments by Governor Lowe about the outlook for monetary policy all but confirmed that the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave interest rates at 1.5% at its final policy meeting of the year on... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Euro-zone lending growth strengthened in October, and with the ECB set to normalise monetary policy only very slowly, we think that bank lending will continue to support the economic recovery. 28th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Softly, softly...the ECB is tweaking its forward guidance Our reading of the minutes of the ECB’s October policy meeting is that the Bank has begun to prepare the ground for an end to its asset purchases. Before long, the ECB seems set to stop promising to... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Strong growth in CEE starts to raise eyebrows Recently-released figures showed that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) picked up to a post-financial crisis high of 5.3% y/y in Q3. Growth strengthened in most countries in the region –... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Growth rebounds, but inflation remains weak With Q3 GDP figures now published for most of the major economies in Emerging Asia, the region looks to have grown by 4.6% y/y in the third quarter – a full 1.5%-points faster than just 18 months ago... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB takes further easing off the table The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) made it pretty clear at today’s MPC meeting, at which the policy rate was left unchanged at 6.75%, that any additional easing is off the cards. As a result, we... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is monetary policy becoming less relevant? The tightening of global monetary policy over the next few years represents a headwind to commodity prices, especially precious metals. However, the reduction in equilibrium interest rates over the... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
