Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of our forecasts Growth in Emerging Europe has generally surprised on the upside in recent quarters, which is consistent with the above-consensus forecasts we made at the start of this year. We expect further positive... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global QE to remain positive for a while yet Although the Fed is starting to shrink its balance sheet and the ECB is likely to taper its asset purchases next year, the monetary base in the world as a whole should continue expanding at least... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can corporates stomach higher interest rates? Private non-financial companies are unlikely to have any difficulty coping with increases in interest costs ahead. First, the scale of the increase in Bank Rate is set to be fairly trivial by past... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Yellen slightly more hawkish on inflation In her speech earlier this week, Chair Janet Yellen stressed that, despite the weakness of core inflation this year, the Fed still intends to push ahead with further interest rate hikes, with most... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation to remain subdued, interest rates to stay low Whereas the consensus is expecting monetary policy in Emerging Asia to be tightened next year, we think central banks will be in little hurry to raise interest rates. One of the main reasons is the... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle likely to start in late-2017 The statement accompanying last night’s decision by Egypt’s central bank to leave interest rates on hold suggests that, with inflation now falling, policymakers are trying to downplay expectations... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Jobs growth to be concentrated in highly paid sectors While leading labour market indicators in Australia continue to point a decent pace of employment growth ahead, it is not just the rate of jobs growth that matters but also the composition. And at... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Mortgage rates are heading back over 3% Mortgage rates are set to move back above 3% by the end of 2019. On its own, a rise in mortgage interest rates on that scale is unlikely to trigger another downturn in house prices. But it will act as... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Turning point? The encouraging signs about the health of the Australian economy have continued over the past month, with employment growth gathering pace and the outlook for business investment improving. (See Chart... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ remains one of the most dovish central banks There remains plenty of uncertainty around the formation of the next government and who will be the next permanent Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, but the one consistency is the dovish... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still hawkish on rate outlook In his speech today, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz showed that he remains confident in the economy, suggesting that another interest rate hike is coming this year. That said, we still expect... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Fed normalisation not a game changer The US Fed’s decision to begin scaling back its balance sheet nearly eight years after it started QE is a major milestone, but global financial conditions should remain highly accommodative for a long... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC set to hike in November The Czech MPC’s decision to keep rates on hold today was a very close call and we think that an interest rate hike at the next MPC meeting on 2nd November is highly likely. Following that, our central... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack A Multispeed Recovery GDP figures released this month showed that the economic fortunes of Africa’s largest economies diverged in Q2. South Africa’s economy rebounded after a brief recession at the turn of the year. While... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Recovery in Latin America steps up a gear The past month has brought further evidence that the recovery in Latin America is picking up pace. Our GDP Tracker suggests that regional growth is now running at a three-year high of 3% y/y. The... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Monetary policy outlook clouded by political uncertainty We no longer expect the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) to cut interest rates again this year. The Government’s collapse and prospect of a left-wing coalition taking power have increased the chance of a... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
