Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Sep.) September’s data confirm that the sharp drop in inflation in Brazil is bottoming out. This supports the view that Copom is likely to slow the pace of easing at this month’s policy meeting. 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore: MAS in no rush to tighten Given the subdued outlook for inflation, we think the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will leave its policy settings unchanged not just at next week’s meeting, but throughout 2018 as well. In... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Core price pressures are building Consumer price inflation is likely to have accelerated further in September, due in large part to another rise in vegetable price inflation. Core price pressures are also building, meaning there is no... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Nearing the cyclical peak Economic growth looks set to strengthen in most EMs over the next year, but the cycle is now close to peaking in China and parts of Central and Eastern Europe. 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Sep.) The drop in Russian inflation to a fresh low of 3.0% y/y in September means that another cut in interest rates is all but guaranteed at this month’s CBR Board meeting. The fact that core inflation... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Turning the corner Growth across the Middle East and North Africa has slowed further this year, but it should recover in 2018 and 2019. In the Gulf, the drag on GDP growth from this year’s oil production cuts will fade... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s MPC stays dovish, but rate hikes on the cards in 2018 Poland’s MPC left interest rates unchanged today and the press statement and conference that followed struck a dovish tone. While headline inflation is likely to edge down in the final months of this... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland at the end of its loosening cycle Despite the increased likelihood of looser fiscal policy next year following the collapse of the government last month, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) today opted to cut interest rates. We suspect... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds rates, renewed loosening unlikely The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) went with consensus expectations by keeping its repo rate on hold at 6.00% today. It also acknowledged the growing upside risks to the inflation outlook. As such... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Our recreated M3 measure shows broad money growth accelerating to a 12-month high of 4.6% in August, from 4.3%, although the Fed’s quantitative tightening will put modest downward pressure on the... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC begins aggressive tightening cycle The Romanian MPC’s decision to raise its overnight deposit interest rate represents a move to tighten monetary policy – even though the policy rate was left unchanged. Policymakers struck a fairly... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Sep.) The jump in Turkish inflation, to 11.2% y/y last month, from 10.7% y/y in August, means that the interest rate cuts we had expected before the end of this year are looking less likely. We still think... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA becoming more confident in the economy The Reserve Bank of Australia may have left interest rates at 1.5% for the 14th month today, but its growing confidence in the outlook for activity and inflation may mean it will be prepared to signal... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Regulation may be deciding factor for next Fed Chair The debate surrounding the four candidates who were interviewed to become the next Fed Chair has focused almost exclusively on how they might affect the monetary policy outlook, but we suspect it will... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Monetary policy remaining tight despite RRR cut The People’s Bank gave its devotees a twinge of nostalgia on Saturday as it announced a cut to reserve requirements out of office hours and at the start of a national holiday in China. This was how... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fiscal stimulus to provide short-term boost to growth After another soft start to the year, US economic growth is now benefitting from an upturn in global activity and a loosening of financial conditions. The weaker dollar should boost export growth... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
