UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices The rise in CPI inflation in September took it close to its eventual peak and supports our view that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will press ahead and raise interest rates in November. 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3) The modest rise in headline and underlying price pressures in the third quarter doesn’t dramatically alter the outlook for interest rates, but at the margin it indicates that rates may rise a little... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Sep.) Wholesale price inflation unexpectedly eased in September. But stripping out the effect of volatile fuel and food prices, our measure of core WPI inflation accelerated further last month. With reasons... 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Inflation & Credit (Sep.) Core inflation rose to a near six-year high last month and producer price inflation continued to rebound, consistent with resilient growth ahead of the Party Congress. But the credit data suggest that... 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How do our forecasts differ from the consensus and the IMF? For most countries, our forecasts are a little bit below those of both the consensus and the IMF. However, there are three economies, Hong Kong, the Philippines and Pakistan where we think other... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The 0.5% m/m rise in headline consumer prices in September was driven by a spike in gasoline prices due to Hurricane Harvey, while there was a more muted 0.1% rise in core consumer prices. But the... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s central bank shrugs off inflation dip Peru’s central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 3.50% last night, and while there could be scope to ease policy a little further in the next 3-6 months, as things stand we expect rates... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update MAS to keep monetary policy supportive The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today left its monetary policy settings unchanged. The accompanying statement gives the MAS room to tighten policy if necessary, but given the subdued outlook... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Do rate hikes lead to recessions? Interest rate hikes are commonly thought to cause recessions. However, the track record of G7 tightening cycles shows that this has usually not been the case. 12th October 2017 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Industrial Production (Aug.) While headline consumer price inflation was unchanged last month, core inflation rose again. Policymakers will put less weight on the erratic industrial production data that were also released today... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus When will interest rates rise? We believe the financial markets have gone too far by pricing in a strong possibility that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates twice next year, from 1.5% to 2.0%. Economic... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How will the world cope with tighter monetary policy? We expect global growth to slow only modestly as the era of easy money starts drawing to a close. The monetary tightening is set to be gradual, limited and staggered, with some countries only starting... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Election unlikely to revive Abenomics Victory for Prime Minister Abe in this month’s election would keep Japan on the same track it has been on since 2012, pursuing fiscal tightening, loose monetary policy and tentative structural reform... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) The drop in Mexican inflation last month is likely to be the start of a rapid downwards trend and we expect the headline rate to fall back into the central bank’s target range by the middle of next... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Sep.) The rise in Czech inflation to a five-year high of 2.7% y/y in September supports our view that the next hike in the policy interest rate – taking it from 0.25% to 0.50% – will come at the CNB Board... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Mid-Autumn Festival distortions drag down inflation We expect consumer price inflation to have fallen in September as a shift in the timing of Mid-Autumn Festival probably caused a drop in food price inflation last month. This will reverse in October... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
