US Economics Weekly Race to be next Fed Chair enters closing stages The markets are right to remain relatively sanguine over the upcoming decision on who will be the next Fed Chair, since the Fed’s low rate regime will probably continue with President Donald Trump... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Markets mispricing interest rate moves Market expectations towards South African interest rates have shifted markedly in recent weeks. While a rate cut next month is no-longer likely, we think that the markets have moved too far, and are... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Sep.) The headline inflation rate rose to 1.6% in September, from 1.4%, but the increase was partly due to higher energy prices, which have already begun to fall back. Although some of the core inflation... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC still on track for a November hike While it is far from a done deal, there was nothing in the comments made by MPC members this week, or the latest economic data releases, to make us alter our view that the MPC will press ahead and... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Politics drive latest moves in EM currencies In an otherwise quiet month for EM markets, the sharp falls in the Mexican peso and Turkish lira have stood out. In each case, the triggers have been different – the 7% fall in the peso against the... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Tighter policy won’t derail global recovery The steady economic expansion in advanced economies is set to continue for the next year or two, led by rising household consumption and business investment. Although most economies are approaching... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia likely to cut rates further next year Today’s decision by Bank Indonesia to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25% probably represents a pause in the central bank’s easing cycle, rather than a halt. We continue to think that with... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Set to unveil roadmap for gentle, flexible taper The ECB has now laid some very firm groundwork to announce after its meeting on 26th October that it will taper its asset purchases from January. Unlike most forecasters, we expect the Bank to set out... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank on hold ahead of ECB The Riksbank is unlikely to shift its policy stance until it sees firmer signals of the outlook for policy in the euro-zone. So despite above-target inflation in Sweden, we do not expect the Riksbank... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Housing market risks diminishing The recent slowdown in the housing market suggests that there is scope for monetary policy to be looser over the coming years than the Norges Bank currently anticipates. That said, we don’t expect any... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Economy may slow sooner under new government We are not yet changing our forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, interest rates or the dollar due to the news that a Labour-NZ First-Greens coalition led by Jacinda Ardern will form the next... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update MPC minutes highlight inflation and fiscal worries The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) October policy meeting reveal that most members expressed caution about recent fiscal developments and the inflation outlook. Indeed, with inflation... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea to keep rates low for some time yet The Bank of Korea (BoK) left interest rates on hold today and the governor’s accompanying press conference makes clear that monetary policy will remain accommodative. We continue to expect the policy... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank unlikely to raise interest rates The Bank of Canada will probably err on the side of caution at its policy meeting next week by deciding to keep interest rates at 1.00%. Although the Bank still seems confident in the economy, NAFTA... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Aug.) Employment growth came off the boil a little in August. But with surveys of hiring suggesting that this will be a temporary development while wage growth more-or-less maintained its recent pace, we... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A look ahead to the Czech elections The centre-right ANO is likely to emerge as the single largest party in Friday’s parliamentary election in the Czech Republic, which may open the door to looser fiscal policy. That said, there are... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
