Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank unlikely to cut rates further, for now Investors have slashed their expectations for interest rate hikes in Sweden over the coming years and are now broadly in line with our previously well below consensus view. But while we now forecast... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Monetary easing unlikely to drive a sustained rally Hopes that much looser monetary policy, particularly in the US, will prevent more weakness in the global economy have supported emerging market (EM) assets recently, but we doubt that this will last. 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi spells out ECB’s dovish intentions Mr Draghi’s speech at the ECB’s conference this morning is the clearest indication yet that the Bank will cut interest rates and relaunch its asset purchase programme in the coming months if, as we... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Rising wage growth won’t prevent policy loosening Wage growth has strengthened in several advanced economies despite the global economic slowdown. But, outside the UK, we do not expect this to prevent monetary policy loosening. Strong productivity... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Nationalbank to match ECB rate cut, eventually The small interest rate cut that we now forecast by the ECB in December is unlikely to be matched immediately by Denmark’s Nationalbank (DNB). But given that upward pressure on the krone is now likely... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What would US rate cuts mean for Asia? Expectations that the US will soon start to cut interest rates have provided a boost to Asian currencies in recent weeks. But if we are right that slowing growth in the US and the escalating trade war... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Rate cuts coming in Brazil, Argentine political jostling The weakness of the Brazilian economy and rapidly falling inflation mean we now expect an interest rate cut, and we think there is a window of opportunity for Copom to act at next week’s meeting... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: easing cycle has further to run The Central Bank of Russia’s dovish communications accompanying today’s decision to cut the key rate support our view that more monetary loosening lies in store over the coming quarters. We expect... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Perma-doves at the SNB, Norges Bank to hike again The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its monetary policy settings unchanged on Thursday was something of a formality. But whereas some commentators have suggested that the Bank is out of... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) The wholesale price index is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers but, even so, the drop in the headline rate in May will be used by the MPC as further justification of its... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market not as rosy as the RBA thought The RBA has moved closer to our view that the natural unemployment may be as low as 4.0%. That means unemployment would need to fall considerably before wage pressures begin to emerge. And we think... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Markets have fingers in their ears about rate rises There isn’t much chance that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will raise interest rates from 0.75% at its meeting on Thursday 20th June, but we expect the MPC will use the opportunity to repeat... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold for now, but next move to be down As expected, Swiss policymakers maintained their expansionary monetary policy at their June policy meeting. But the recent shift to a looser bias in the US and the euro-zone only strengthens our view... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Price level targets wouldn’t solve policy problems The past month has seen a significant change in tone from the world’s major central banks and in expectations of their policies. As fears over trade tensions have mounted and economic data have... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Rate cuts coming, but not until September We expect a further slowdown in economic growth to eventually prompt the Fed to cut interest rates, particularly with underlying inflation muted. But it is hard to see that happening before the... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank won’t ease policy anytime soon A looming slowdown in GDP growth and the prospect of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve has prompted speculation that the BoJ will have to ease policy by the end of this year. However, the Bank... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
