Asia Economics Weekly Which central banks are most likely to deliver surprises? Central banks across Emerging Asia typically do a poor job at flagging up their decisions in advance, which often leads to investors being wrong-footed. Since the start of 2010, under half of interest... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Sluggish wage growth to prevent BoJ from tightening We wouldn’t read too much into the early results of this year’s spring wage negotiations, which showed that the large carmakers and electronic firms lifted base pay by less than in 2014 and 2015. But... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC still on track for May hike With no Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled in April, its meeting on 22nd March will be the last opportunity for the MPC to lay the groundwork for another interest rate hike in May... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fiscal stimulus will prompt more monetary tightening With the benefits of the fiscal stimulus, strong global demand and the weaker dollar, we expect GDP growth to accelerate to 2.8% in 2018. As the fiscal stimulus begins to wear off and the cumulative... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank edging towards tighter policy Following the recent reduction in its inflation target, the Norges Bank now clearly expects to begin raising interest rates this year. However, we think that it will tighten monetary policy more... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB to lag ECB in policy normalisation Despite sounding a slightly more positive tone on the economy, the Swiss National Bank today reiterated that the Swiss franc remained “highly valued” and that it still needed to keep interest rates at... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Risk of a step change in policy when Orr takes the helm The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly keep the official cash rate on hold at 1.75% at Grant Spencer’s final meeting as Governor on Thursday 22nd March and it’s likely to reiterate that... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed stepping up the pace of policy tightening The rebound in inflation, rapid employment growth and the recently announced boost to Federal spending for the next two years should convince the Fed to raise rates by 25bp at Jerome Powell’s first... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland on hold for now While the Central Bank of Iceland left policy unchanged today, it also acknowledged that inflation expectations are rising. We expect higher actual and expected inflation to prompt the Bank to raise... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Feb.) Slower inflation and a political breakthrough have opened the way to interest rate cuts in Nigeria. We expect that policymakers will lower their key rate from 14.00% to 13.00% in Q2. 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) Headline wholesale price inflation edged down in February. But stripping out the effect of volatile fuel and food prices, our measure of core WPI inflation rose accelerated month. With reasons to... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: rising inflation to prompt further rate hikes The rise in Romanian inflation – which hit a five-year high last month – appears to have been driven by rapid wage growth and provides further signs that the economy is overheating. As a result, we... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Life after the booms The economy will probably cope reasonably well even though both the mining and housing booms are over, but over the next couple of years it is unlikely to strengthen as much as policymakers hope. Over... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB QE has changed this year in more ways than one In addition to reducing the monthly pace of its asset purchases from €60bn to €30bn, in January the ECB also changed the composition of its purchases. Corporate sector debt now accounts for a larger... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Severe weather won’t cool growth in Q1 The likely dent to retail sales, spending on consumer services and construction output as a result of February’s bad weather will make the economy look fragile. But the hit to the economy will be... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch How big a deal is the new lower inflation target? The Norges Bank’s new inflation target strengthens the case for tighter monetary policy. But we think that the Bank will move very cautiously. 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
