Canada Economics Weekly NAFTA deal wouldn't lead to higher interest rates The US administration appears to be pushing hard to get a deal done on NAFTA, reigniting speculation of further interest rate increases from the Bank of Canada. Even if a trade deal is done, however... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore is not a bellwether for the global economy As a small, open economy that releases GDP data much earlier than most other countries, Singapore is often billed as a bellwether for the global economy. In reality, Singapore’s GDP figures are far... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Core inflation to remain elevated Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased in February, due to a further drop in food inflation. But core price pressures are still building. We think this will ultimately prompt the Reserve... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Growth suffers weather-related dip The National Accounts showed that the economy barely slowed at all in 2017. Annual growth, revised up from 1.7% to 1.8%, was only marginally lower than 2016’s 1.9% outturn. Since then, however, the... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Lending data add to evidence that growth has peaked Euro-zone money and lending growth slowed in February, adding to the evidence from the official data and business surveys that economic growth has peaked. Growth in “narrow” money – which is the sum... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds rates, but tighter policy on the horizon The RBI’s decision to hold its repo rate at 6.00% today came as no surprise. But we think that elevated core inflation and looser fiscal policy will prompt the central bank to raise interest rates in... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Trade war fears mount The growing threat of a US-China trade war is the key risk to the outlook. The tariff measures announced so far don’t amount to much, but any escalation in trade tensions that leads to a significant... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rates on hold, but cuts likely later in Q2 Today’s Nigerian MPC press conference supported our view that policymakers will cut rates later this year. We think that the key rate will fall from 14.00% – at which it was left today – to 13.00% in... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: growing risk that policy will be kept too loose A rise in interbank rates and weaker net wage growth appear to lie behind the Romanian MPC’s surprise decision to keep its policy interest rate on hold today. We still think that the tightening cycle... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka cuts rates, loosening will be gradual The central bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) today cut its lending rate by 25bp. While further monetary policy loosening looks likely against a backdrop of weak growth and easing inflation, aggressive rate... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Talking the exit talk The Bank of Japan has become more vocal about its desire to exit the current ultra-loose policy settings. But with concerns about the impact of low policy rates on financial intermediation overblown... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Global events may keep the RBA on hold for longer The Reserve Bank of Australia has become more worried about trade tariffs and rising global bank funding costs. Coming on top of the weakness of the housing market and wage growth, it is becoming even... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fiscal policy will determine future path of Brazil rates Brazil’s central bank appears to have been spooked by the weakness of the recent inflation data, but we think that the conduct of fiscal policy will ultimately have a much greater bearing on how... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will trade fears dent growth? The recently announced US tariffs should have a limited direct effect on the UK economy. Admittedly, falls in equity prices – on the back of concerns over a full-blown trade war – could clearly have... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Policy tightening on the horizon The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) looks set to keep its policy rates on hold at the meeting that ends on Thursday 5th April. But we think that elevated core inflation and looser fiscal policy will... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Trade spat will not deflect Fed (or BoE) from hiking We expect the Fed to raise interest rates three more times this year, and twice in 2019, but we think it will then begin to loosen policy in 2020. Other than the Bank of England, most major central... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
