Emerging Markets Economics Update EM tightening cycle to kick on Inflationary pressures now seem to be building in many EMs. As a result, we think that the interest rate hikes seen in a few countries this week and that are likely next week will be followed by... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Odds of a H2 interest rate hike increase Although May’s strong GDP growth partly reflected a rebound from earlier weakness, it was nevertheless encouraging and June’s trade data suggest that the economy ended the second quarter on a high... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Hawkish Banxico, Colombia’s austere budget Mexico’s central bank struck a hawkish tone in the statement accompanying this week’s monetary policy decision, and the markets are pricing in a good chance of another interest rate hike in the near... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) & International Trade (Jun.) Non-farm payrolls increased by a more modest 157,000 in July but, with the gain in the preceding two months revised up by a cumulative 59,000, the labour market still appears to be in good health and... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Perfect storm brewing in Turkey, BMW comes to Hungary The US’s decision to impose sanctions on Turkey this week, as well as another bad inflation reading, has strengthened the case for further interest rate hikes. And there’s a growing risk of severe... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ tested, GDP rebounding The outlines of the Bank of Japan’s new policy framework have become clearer during the week: a more flexible approach to intervention, a focus on preventing sharp moves, but also a tolerance of... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC presses ahead, economy makes a decent start to Q3 After the recent run of upbeat economic news the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to raise rates this week came as little surprise. And the hawkish tone of the Minutes and Inflation Report lent... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa: Rate cuts continue, land reform fears overdone While policymakers in other EMs are hiking rates, we think that African central banks will follow Kenya's recent example and continue to ease policy over the next 18 months. Fears surrounding the... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Jul.) July’s rise in Swiss inflation was driven by faster energy and food inflation, while underlying price pressures remained very weak. And with the franc set to remain strong by historical standards, we... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines central bank to turn more aggressive? Rising inflationary pressures mean that the central bank of the Philippines (BSP) is almost certain to raise interest rates at its meeting on Thursday, the only question is by how much. 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jul.) The rise in Turkish inflation to a 15-year high of 15.8% y/y last month, coming alongside further lira weakness following the imposition of US sanctions, strengthens the case for interest rate hikes... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: rate cut still likely before the end of the year Given the recent rebound in inflation, it was no surprise that the central bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) decided to leave policy on hold today. But with growth continuing to disappoint and inflation likely... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal binge, RBI credibility Data released this week show a rapid expansion of the central government’s deficit in the early part of this fiscal year. This is a common occurrence, as revenues tend to get ramped up in the latter... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC: Another hike on the cards in November The new forecasts accompanying today’s Czech MPC meeting – at which the policy interest rate was raised by 25bp – suggest that another hike is likely in November. In 2019, we think that interest rates... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC starts gradual process of policy normalisation Despite the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)’s hawkish forecasts accompanying the second rise in interest rates for a decade, markets are still anticipating only a very modest pace of monetary policy... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: assessing the fallout from US sanctions The sanctions imposed by the US on two Turkish government ministers in themselves aren’t very big, but it looks likely that more measures will be announced. The lira is likely to fall further... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
