RBA Watch Growing less optimistic Despite underlying inflation coming in slightly stronger than the Reserve Bank of Australia expected in the first quarter, the RBA will almost certainly leave interest rates at 1.5% at its next policy... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Economy gathering momentum Indian GDP growth hit a five-quarter high in Q4 2017, and various indicators suggest that the economy strengthened further in the first quarter of 2018. Industrial production growth last quarter may... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1) Even though in the first quarter underlying inflation essentially rose back within the RBA’s 2-3% target range for the first time in two years, we doubt this means that the RBA will raise interest... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Policy tightening remains a long way off The unusual strength of wage growth in Japan has attracted attention recently. But the main development at the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting is likely to be another reduction in the Board’s forecast... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will softer EM inflation trigger interest rate cuts? The recent string of weak inflation data released across EMs has been due largely to a drop in food inflation and, while we think that many central banks will look through this, policymakers in some... 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price surge having only limited impact on dollar The recent resurgence in oil prices should be good news for Canada but, since it is partly due to a temporary spike in geopolitical tensions, we expect prices to fall back later this year. Domestic... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Tighter monetary policy on the horizon While the Nordics and Switzerland seem to have made slow starts to 2018, the outlook for these economies is generally pretty bright. Nevertheless, healthy rates of economic growth will push up... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Slowdown on the horizon Despite some weakness in the first quarter, and concerns about protectionism, global economic growth is likely to hold up well this year. In advanced economies, the outlook for investment and... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Policymaking takes turn for the worse as elections approach Malaysia, Indonesia and Pakistan all face crucial elections over the next few months, and in each country, policymaking has recently taken a turn for the worse. In Malaysia and Indonesia we see little... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Low inflation continues to haunt New Zealand Looking past the temporary dip in inflation in the first quarter, which was partly driven by government decisions, there have been some encouraging signs about the outlook for inflation in New Zealand... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Policy tightening still a distant prospect The tight labour market is now boosting wage growth but not by enough to generate significant inflation. With the economy likely to slow this year, the Bank of Japan won’t be able to tighten policy... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Expect “closed-mouth” operations from Mr Draghi With the economic data weakening, but some members of the Governing Council keen to bring asset purchases to an end, President Draghi is unlikely to give much away next week. We suspect that the ECB... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Economy to withstand higher interest rates We maintain our relatively optimistic view about the prospects for UK economic growth over the next few years. In particular, a recovery in real earnings should help household spending growth to... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Changed Riksbank guidance will still signal 2018 rate rise At next week’s meeting, the Riksbank is likely to cut its GDP growth and inflation forecasts. This leads us to expect the Bank to signal that interest rate rises will come later than policymakers... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1) The fall back in CPI inflation towards the bottom of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target range in the first quarter was partly due to government decisions rather than economic forces, but it nonetheless highlights... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Slow start to the year not a sign of things to come While the latest data suggest that the European economies made a weak start to the year, we do not see this as the start of a serious slowdown. The euro-zone in particular has more spare capacity than... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
