UK Economics Weekly Prospect of higher interest rates drifting further away Despite the rebound in monthly GDP growth from -0.4% m/m in April to +0.3% m/m in May, the economy probably just about contracted in Q2 as a whole. Some of that is just payback from activity being... 12th July 2019 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kganyago reappointed, rate cut likely next week The re-appointment of South Africa’s respected central bank governor will help to allay fears concerning the independence of the Reserve Bank. We think that policymakers will cut their policy rate... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account confirms dovish intentions A lot has happened since the Governing Council’s policy meeting on 6th June, so the account published today has arguably been superseded by events. But it does confirm that even five weeks ago the... 11th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Personnel changes point to looser policy Recent news about a number of staff changes among the world’s central banks has supported our view that widespread policy loosening is to come. As the next ECB President, we suspect that Christine... 11th July 2019 · 15 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: More evidence of Q2 recovery Activity data for May added to the evidence that the economy rebounded following its contraction in Q1. Even so, we think that the Reserve Bank will cut its policy rate from 6.75% to 6.50% next week. 11th July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus Political risks and three big economic trends While it is recognised that political developments, such as a no deal Brexit and a Labour government, have the capacity to send the economy in different directions, it’s not as well known that three... 11th July 2019 · 20 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s pension vote paves way for larger rate cuts The large margin of victory for Brazil’s pension bill in its first vote in the lower house last night is likely to result in a rally in local markets later today, and makes an interest rate cut at the... 11th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Bank’s forecasts show it is becoming more dovish Although the tone of Bank of Canada’s monetary policy statement remained fairly neutral, its updated forecasts suggest that the Bank is losing faith in the economy’s short-term prospects. We continue... 10th July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Powell signals that July rate cut a done deal Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress indicates that, despite the trade truce following the recent G20 meeting and the strength of employment growth in June, the Fed intends to push... 10th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Jun.) The sharp drop in Brazilian inflation to 3.4% in June, which took it below the central bank’s target, suggests that policymakers will soon start to ease monetary policy. Barring any major hiccups with... 10th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Aggressive easing heralds end of housing downturn Australia’s housing downturn will probably come to an end towards the end of the year. That means that the drag from falling housing wealth on consumer spending will subside. It also means that... 10th July 2019 · 22 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: rates left unchanged but further easing likely Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) left interest rates unchanged at 3.0% today, but kept the door open to further easing. With growth set to slow in the second half of the year, we think the central bank... 9th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The implications of the CBRT reshuffle The dismissal of Turkey’s central bank governor over the weekend increases the chances of aggressive cuts in interest rates in the near-term. But it has also raised the risk of larger currency falls... 8th July 2019 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell may temper market expectations of rate cuts The data this week were consistent with a continued slowdown in economic growth, but don’t yet look weak enough to convince the Fed to cut interest rates immediately. We suspect that Chair Jerome... 5th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB won’t be a QE Lagarde this time The continued weakness of the economic data, together with Christine Lagarde’s nomination as the new ECB president, makes us more confident that the Bank will loosen policy in the coming months... 5th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly No more “boring” SNB, Riksbank in denial The Swiss 10-year bond yield dropped to a record low this week, and the prospect of further easing by the Swiss National Bank suggests that the rally has further to run. Meanwhile, although the... 5th July 2019 · 6 mins read
