Global Markets Update E-Z government bond yields likely to be low for longer Christine Lagarde’s nomination as ECB President makes us even more optimistic about the near-term outlook for government bonds in the euro-zone and reinforces our view that corporate bonds there will... 5th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines CPI (Jun.) The renewed drop in inflation in June is likely to continue as the headline rate is dragged down by falling food and fuel price inflation, providing a green light for the central bank to cut rates in... 5th July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) Broad money growth accelerated to a decade high in May, as past increases in interest rates boosted portfolio demand, but the more recent renewed slump in rates will trigger a slowdown in the second... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s MPC continues to strike a dovish note The relatively dovish stance adopted by Poland’s MPC in the communications accompanying today’s interest rate meeting supports our view that monetary policy settings will be left unchanged until the... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank bucks the dovish trend The decision by the Riksbank to leave its repo rate on hold at -0.25% this morning came as no surprise, but the fact that it left its (in our view) optimistic forecast for interest rates unchanged... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update New ECB boss to be at least as dovish as Draghi Yesterday’s announcement that Christine Lagarde will succeed Mario Draghi leaves us even more confident that the ECB will loosen monetary policy in the coming months. We think the Bank is likely to... 3rd July 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Why ‘yield curve control’ wouldn’t work for the SNB Swiss pension funds and life insurers have been among the losers from negative interest rates, but the SNB is unlikely to follow the Bank of Japan’s example of targeting long-term bond yields to limit... 2nd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish shift on Polish MPC won’t result in rate hike A rise in inflation has led five of the ten Polish MPC members to suggest that interest rates may soon need to be raised. But we doubt that any of the five more dovish members, including Governor... 2nd July 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will probably cut rates to 0.5% While the RBA lowered the cash rate to 1.0% at today’s meeting, it signalled that it won’t ease policy any further for now. However, we think that the Bank remains too optimistic about the outlook for... 2nd July 2019 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) India’s manufacturing PMI readings remained consistent with decent output in June but it is unlikely be a barrier to further policy loosening. There is a high chance that a looser fiscal stance will... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss-EU spat boils over; Riksbank to lower rate path The dispute between Switzerland and the EU has shifted up a gear but is unlikely to prevent the Swiss franc from rising further this year. Meanwhile, although the Riksbank looks certain to leave its... 28th June 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly We now expect one extra cut by the RBA & RBNZ Following dovish comments from the RBNZ this week we now expect the Bank to cut rates to 1.0% by the end of the year. Meanwhile, our forecast that the RBA will cut rates to 0.5% by early next year... 28th June 2019 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Fed easing and US equities: lessons from history While the performance of the US stock market in the Fed’s last four easing cycles was varied, our view remains that it will fall in the next one, which we expect to span from late-summer 2019 to... 27th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland to cut further this year Following this morning’s decision by the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) to cut its key interest rate by 25bps, we now think that further cuts are in the pipeline. However, to the extent that a rumoured... 26th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Draghi to go out with a bang Recent comments by Mario Draghi suggest that the ECB will loosen policy sooner than we had anticipated. We now expect the Bank to strengthen its forward guidance in July and cut its deposit rate in... 26th June 2019 · 24 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ will probably cut rates to 1.0% The RBNZ’s dovish tone supports our view that the Bank will cut rates again before the year is out. In fact, we now think the Bank will cut at its next meeting in August, and once more at its November... 26th June 2019 · 3 mins read
